We head into the final weekend of the 2026 US Open with the usual suspects in the women’s draw with the former and new-current WTA World Rankings #1’s being the final two women standing at this year’s tournament. There is new blood guaranteed on the men’s side, however, as none of the remaining men possess any US Open hardware.
Let’s dive into Friday night’s two semifinal matchups.
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Friday's Best US Open Men’s Semifinals Bets
US Open Picks 2-1 | Last 2-1 | (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Frances Tiafoe (USA) vs. Ben Shelton (USA)
Ben Shelton holds a 3-1 head-to-head advantage against Frances Tiafoe with two of those victories coming in back-to-back US Opens in 2023 and 2024.
Shelton comes into this semifinal matchup on the back of a victory over defending US Open champion, Carlos Alcaraz in a dramatic five-setter, but the Carlitos Hangover is real…at least recently. The last seven opponents to defeat Alcaraz and then play a subsequent round, meaning they didn’t beat him in the finals of a tournament, are 1-6 (14.3%) in the next round. The most recent example is Novak Djokovic in the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinals. Joker defeated Alcaraz before retiring after a grueling first set to Alexander Zverev. As cosmic synergy would have it, the winner of this match could end up playing Zverev in the finals.
Frances Tiafoe, playing in his third US Open semifinals in five years, is 0-2 all-time in Grand Slam semifinals, both losses coming at the US Open. While he is 1-3 all-time vs. Shelton, he is 1-1 at the US Open and won the most recent Grand Slam matchup on his way to his last semifinal appearance back in 2024. The Lululemon brand ambassador also thrives in the underdog role, having most recently won seven of his last eight ATP matches as the underdog.
Back Big Foe to get the job done and finally break thru to his first US Open/Grand Slam Final. Like I said, Carlitos’ Curse is real.
Pick: Frances Tiafoe Moneyline (+235)
Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. Karen Khachanov (RUS)
Alexander Zverev is playing in his third straight Grand Slam final, but the French Open champ has never won a Grand Slam title on the hard court. While he is 1-1 in the US Open semifinals in his career, he is 5-7 in Grand Slam semifinals in his career, including 2-4 on hard surfaces. He is 4-1 in his last five Grand Slam semis but he is 1-2 in his last three GS semis on hard courts and that one victory was the aforementioned Djokovic retirement.
This means Zverev hasn’t won a Grand Slam semifinal matchup on a hard surface that was played to completion since beating Pablo Carreño Busta in five sets back in 2020, the better part of a decade ago. This also means he has never won a Grand Slam semis matchup that was played to completion in front of a live crowd since the 2020 US Open was not open to soectators in the midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Zverev has won the first set in nine straight Grand Slam matches, including 6-2 first-set wins in each of his last three GS matches.
Karen Khacharov has won at least one set in each of his last 23 completed Grand Slam matches. He has covered the game spread in seven of his last eight completed US Open matches as an underdog. Additionally, seven of his last eight completed US Open matches in which he was the underdog have gone over the match game line. Khacharov is 2-2 in his last four completed head-to-head matches with Zverev, all on hard courts. Khacharov won their most recent completed matchup 2-1 at the 2025 Canadian Open.
Zverev is the favorite for a reason, but not as big as the moneyline who lead you to believe.
Picks: Karen Khachanov Moneyline (+350) & Karen Khachanov +5.5 (-125)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports, Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner, and on TikTok @The GreatLoudini. For more from Luke, check out his archive.