Aaron Pico faces Losene Keita at UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. Pico enters as a -142 moneyline favorite, while Keita offers a +120 return as the underdog, setting up a competitive matchup on the Volkanovski vs. Evloev card. Our Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita picks and predictions break down the UFC 333 betting odds, key matchup factors and best bets.
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UFC 333 Main Card Picks & Predictions: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
UFC 333 is a loaded card with two title bouts and several ranked matchups. The promotion is headed to Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Alexander Volkanovski is putting his belt on the line against Movsar Evloev in the main event, while Petr Yan puts his on the line in a rematch with Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event. The prelims start at 10 a.m. ET, while the main card starts at 2 p.m. ET, all on Paramount+. Here are our top main card picks and predictions for UFC 333.
Aaron Pico (-142) vs. Losene Keita (+120)
This matchup is one of the most interesting on the card, and it opens the main card on Saturday. Aaron Pico is the 11th-ranked fighter in the featherweight division and is 1-1 in the UFC. He is fighting Losene Keita, who is also 1-1 in the UFC.
Pico fought in Bellator from 2017 to 2023, where he owned a 12-4 record with eight knockouts, two submissions, and two decision victories. Three of his four losses were via knockout and one via submission. He is a skilled fighter with loads of experience against high-level competition.
Keita is an athletic fighter with explosive power. That may be a problem for Pico, who does not have the best chin. He knocked out Muhammad Naimov in September in the first round. He lost to Nathaniel Wood in his UFC debut in March via split decision.
Pico's wrestling is the key for him in this matchup. He has to get Keita to the mat, which he probably can, but can he hold him there? I do not think he can. Pico has high-level wrestling, but he has to control him on the mat once he gets him there.
Keita has the speed and power advantage on the feet. Pico is an excellent boxer, but he does not have a lot of power. He uses his boxing to set up his wrestling. Pico averages 6.54 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the UFC, while Keita has defended 100% of takedowns.
I expect Pico to use his wrestling nonstop in this matchup. I think he finds some success, but holding Keita on the mat is tough. Once Keita finds his chin, this fight will not last long. Keita is an underdog, so that is the play, but I also like him to win by knockout.
Bet: Losene Keita (+120)
