Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev square off at UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, in a matchup priced close to even. Dawson enters as a slight -118 favorite, with Aliev listed at -102, making the price a key consideration for bettors choosing a side. Read on for our Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev picks and predictions as we break down the UFC 333 odds, key matchup factors and best bets for this Abu Dhabi clash.
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UFC 333 Prelims Card Picks & Bets: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
UFC 333 is a loaded card with two title bouts and several ranked matchups. The promotion is headed to Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Alexander Volkanovski is putting his belt on the line against Movsar Evloev in the main event, while Petr Yan puts his on the line in a rematch with Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event. The prelims start at 10 a.m. ET, while the main card starts at 2 p.m. ET, all on Paramount+. Here are our top prelim picks and predictions for UFC 333.
Grant Dawson (-118) vs. Nurullo Aliev (-102)
This card is full of close matchups, and this lightweight matchup is one of them. Grant Dawson is 24-3-1 as a professional with a 12-2-1 record in the UFC since 2019. He is fighting Nurullo Aliev, who is 12-0 as a professional.
Dawson recently defeated Mateusz Rebecki via submission in May, and lost via first-round knockout to Manuel Torres in December 2025. He is an experienced veteran with loads of experience, but this is a tough matchup for him.
Aliev is 4-0 in the UFC after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. He has won every fight in the promotion by decision. He recently beat Mike Davis over three rounds in July.
Dawson is a wrestler with decent striking. He averages 3.58 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 39% accuracy. Aliev is an elite wrestler with a pressure style of striking. He averages 3.48 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy.
Dawson is typically the better grappler, but not in this matchup. He wins because he has the ability to get the fight to the mat if he is struggling on the feet. Aliev should be the one dictating where this fight takes place. He can get Dawson to the mat and control him there.
On the feet, Aliev is not the greatest striker, but he can hold his own. Dawson does not have great head movement, and Aliev throws powerful punches. He is improving his striking, and his pressure style could be a problem for Dawson. Aliev throws hard, although he is not that accurate (44%). Aliev could finish this fight, but betting on the moneyline is safer.
Bet: Nurullo Aliev (-102)
