The No. 4 Baylor Bears take on the No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders in each team's second Big 12 game. These schools have met 134 times in their histories, with Texas Tech holding a 78-56 series edge.
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Details
- Opening Line: Texas Tech -3 (at Fanduel)
- Current Line: Texas Tech -3
- O/U: 129.5
- Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
- Start Time: 9:00 PM ET- January 7th, 2020
- Last Meeting: February 16, 2019- #15 Texas Tech def. Baylor 86-61
Overview
The Baylor Bears have climbed all the way to fourth in the latest AP Poll. They enter this game on a ten-game winning streak, with their lone loss coming on a neutral court to Washington. Baylor is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They rank 11th in the nation with 58.9 points per game allowed. The Bears have held each of their last six opponents to 63 points or fewer. This stretch of dominant defense includes top-25 wins over then-No. 12 Arizona and No. 18 Butler. They have a third top-25 win on their resume, beating then-No. 17 Villanova 87-78 in the championship of the Myrtle Beach Invitational.
The Bears are led by the backcourt of Jared Butler (17.3 PPG) and MaCio Teague (15.2 PPG). These are the only two players averaging in double figures for Baylor. Big man Freddie Gillespie nearly averages a double-double, with 8.7 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. His contributions have been vital, considering fellow frontcourt mate Tristan Clark has missed four games with a recurring knee injury. Though they average 75.7 PPG, Baylor does not shoot the ball with much accuracy. They rank 201st in the country with a 43.4 field goal percentage.
Last year's national runner-up, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, enter this game with a 10-3 record. They opened the season with five straight wins, which they followed with three consecutive losses to Iowa, Creighton, and DePaul. The Red Raiders turned their season around in a big way with a win at Madison Square Garden over then-No. 1 Louisville. That win ignited a current five-game winning streak, punctuated by a 35-point drubbing of Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener.
The biggest difference in the Red Raiders' wins and losses is the health of their leading scorer Jahmi'us Ramsey. Ramsey left their loss to Iowa in the second half with a leg injury, and Texas Tech lost the next two games without him. Since he returned three games ago, the Red Raiders have won each game by an average of 20 PPG. Texas Tech ranks 46th in the country at 62.2. PPG allowed. They are holding opponents to just 39.2% from the field, good for 51st in the nation. Texas Tech has five players averaging double figures, led by Ramsey's 17.4 PPG.
Trends
- Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a straight-up winning record.
- Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
- Red Raiders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Red Raiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
- Red Raiders are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a straight-up winning record.
- Red Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
- Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Bottom Line
The Baylor Bears are every bit deserving of their No. 4 ranking. Their early-season resume stacks up against anyone else's, given their three top-25 wins. Their win against Butler looks more impressive with each passing day, as they have climbed to No. 6 in the country with their loss to Baylor as their only blemish. Outside of Butler and Teague, Devonte Bandoo and Davion Mitchell are also terrific guards. Bandoo shoots 42.1% from three-point range and is a player who can stretch the floor when teams key in on Butler.
Texas Tech will need to do a good job on the defensive glass in this game, as Baylor is tied for 13th in the country with close to 14 offensive rebounds per game. However, there is one big thing that would worry me if I were a Bears fan: the lookahead factor. With all due respect to a Texas Tech team that was an overtime away from a national championship last year, Baylor's next game is at No. 3 Kansas on Saturday afternoon. The Jayhawks have carried the torch in the Big 12 for quite some time, and I would not be shocked if Baylor does not give Texas Tech their full attention in this game.
Baylor may have more dynamic players and athletes from top to bottom on their roster. However, they do not have the best player on the court (that would be Jahmi'us Ramsey) or the best coach on the sideline. Do not underestimate the culture and winning pedigree that Chris Beard has brought to Lubbock. Look for Beard and the Red Raiders coaching staff to dial up a great defensive gameplan to limit the effectiveness of Baylor's guards. The Bears have struggled to score against elite competition. They totaled just 64 against Washington, 63 against Arizona, 53 against Butler, and, just recently, 59 against Texas. The Red Raiders should be able to hold Baylor to the 50s and win a classic Chris Beard grind-it-out half-court game.
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Pick: Texas Tech -3
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.