Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 6 Bets (2022)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 4 spreads and my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line," and ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number indicates the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. Similarly, in the totals value column, a negative number indicates points of line value on the over, while a positive number indicates points of line value on the under.

2022: 23-29-2 ATS | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Here’s a look at College Football Week 4 spreads and my projections. Below you can find my best bets of the week.

2022: 23-29-2 ATS | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Away	Home	ATL	Spread	Value	ATT	Total	Value	Day	CST
Nebraska	Rutgers	3.9	3	0.9	58.5	48.5	10	Friday	6:00 PM
Houston	Memphis	-1.4	-3	1.6	67.5	57.5	10	Friday	6:30 PM
Colorado St.	Nevada	-0.4	-3.5	3.1	67.5	44.5	23	Friday	9:30 PM
UNLV	San Jose St.	-10.4	-7	-3.4	52	53	-1	Friday	9:30 PM
Missouri	Florida	-11.7	-11.5	-0.2	67	54.5	12.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Tennessee	LSU	-1.7	2.5	-4.2	70.5	64	6.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-12.2	-9	-3.2	68	59	9	Saturday	11:00 AM
TCU	Kansas	9.4	7	2.4	74.5	68.5	6	Saturday	11:00 AM
Texas	Oklahoma	6.9	7	-0.1	73.5	65	8.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Purdue	Maryland	-2.8	-3	0.2	67	59	8	Saturday	11:00 AM
Louisville	Virginia	0.2	3	-2.8	62	51	11	Saturday	11:00 AM
Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	-3.8	-5	1.2	66.5	57.5	9	Saturday	11:00 AM
Buffalo	Bowling Green	5.2	2	3.2	67	54.5	12.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Michigan	Indiana	23.3	22	1.3	57.5	59	-1.5	Saturday	11:00 AM
Akron	Ohio	-9.4	-11	1.6	56	59	-3	Saturday	1:00 PM
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	-2.4	-2.5	0.1	54	67	-13	Saturday	1:00 PM
South Florida	Cincinnati	-28.5	-27.5	-1.0	64.5	59	5.5	Saturday	1:30 PM
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	-14.0	-14.5	0.5	51	41.5	9.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Auburn	Georgia	-25.2	-30	4.8	46	49.5	-3.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Utah	UCLA	3.4	4	-0.6	68	64	4	Saturday	2:30 PM
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	-9.4	-9	-0.4	61.5	68.5	-7	Saturday	2:30 PM
East Carolina	Tulane	-3.3	-3	-0.3	52.5	55	-2.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Tulsa	Navy	4.5	4	0.5	52	45	7	Saturday	2:30 PM
Ball St.	Central Michigan	-8.7	-8	-0.7	55.5	64	-8.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Toledo	Northern Illinois	3.7	5.5	-1.8	66	59	7	Saturday	2:30 PM
Kent St.	Miami (OH)	-2.7	6	-8.7	64.5	57	7.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-12.9	-9.5	-3.4	56	53	3	Saturday	2:30 PM
Liberty	Massachusetts	25.4	24.5	0.9	53	48	5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Wisconsin	Northwestern	12.9	10	2.9	43.5	44	-0.5	Saturday	2:30 PM
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	23.6	27	-3.4	70	65	5	Saturday	3:00 PM
Duke	Georgia Tech	3.8	3	0.8	62.5	54	8.5	Saturday	3:00 PM
North Carolina	Miami (FL)	-1.8	-3.5	1.7	84.5	65.5	19	Saturday	3:00 PM
Washington	Arizona St.	9.3	13.5	-4.2	44.5	57.5	-13	Saturday	3:00 PM
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	20.7	17	3.7	56	62	-6	Saturday	3:00 PM
Western Kentucky	UTSA	-1.6	-6.5	4.9	78.5	71	7.5	Saturday	5:00 PM
Air Force	Utah St.	13.4	10	3.4	55.5	55	0.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Wyoming	New Mexico	2.1	3	-0.9	34.5	36	-1.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
James Madison	Arkansas St.	9.3	11.5	-2.2	54.5	55.5	-1	Saturday	6:00 PM
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	17.0	19	-2.0	57.5	55	2.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Southern Miss	Troy	-4.9	-6.5	1.6	43	44.5	-1.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
Connecticut	Florida International	3.7	5	-1.3	53.5	46	7.5	Saturday	6:00 PM
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-5.3	-3	-2.3	54.5	53.5	1	Saturday	6:00 PM
South Carolina	Kentucky	-8.3	-10	1.7	56	49	7	Saturday	6:30 PM
Brigham Young	Notre Dame	-8.9	-3.5	-5.4	60	51	9	Saturday	6:30 PM
Washington St.	USC	-14.3	-13	-1.3	63.5	66	-2.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Army	Wake Forest	-15.5	-17	1.5	82.5	66	16.5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	0.0	2	-2.0	46	45	1	Saturday	6:30 PM
Iowa	Illinois	0.5	-3.5	4.0	28.5	36.5	-8	Saturday	6:30 PM
Clemson	Boston College	18.8	20.5	-1.7	44.5	49.5	-5	Saturday	6:30 PM
Oregon	Arizona	17.5	13	4.5	63.5	70.5	-7	Saturday	7:00 PM
Texas A&M	Alabama	-23.2	-24	0.8	51	52.5	-1.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	14.3	14	0.3	66	58	8	Saturday	7:00 PM
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	-4.4	-3	-1.4	53.5	51	2.5	Saturday	7:00 PM
Fresno St.	Boise St.	-12.8	-7.5	-5.3	46.5	45	1.5	Saturday	8:45 PM
Hawai’i	San Diego St.	-21.4	-21	-0.4	47	48	-1	Saturday	9:30 PM
Oregon St.	Stanford	1.5	7	-5.5	64	56.5	7.5	Saturday	10:00 PM

Colorado State (+3.5) at Nevada (Friday)
ATL: Nevada -0.4

On the surface, this play makes no sense. Nevada, the home team, is 2-3 and has beaten two FBS teams. Colorado State is 0-4, hasn't come within 15 points of any opponent, and lost 41-10 to an FCS team last time out.

This is CSU HC Jay Norvell's return to Nevada - he recruited a majority of the players on Nevada's roster. Norvell also took 11 Nevada players with him in the transfer portal, along with most of its coaching staff. Arguably, CSU knows Nevada's personnel better than any opponent will know any other's all season.

And speaking to CSU's personnel, it will be stronger on Friday than perhaps at any point all season. Norvell's slow start there is partly attributable to shoddy OL play: Despite playing one less game than most teams, CSU leads the nation with 25 sacks allowed and is last in the country in rushing YPG and YPC.

Impossible to get the Air Raid going if you're allowing six sacks a game, amirite? CSU's offensive line was decimated by injuries over the first month. During the 0-4 start, they started a different offensive line configuration each time. But reports out of CSU this week suggest that the Rams are getting back both starting offensive tackles from injuries this week.

Not only that, but CSU believes there's a decent chance they'll be getting back four previously-injured defensive starters for this game - a DT, a CB, and both safeties.

Nevada's fluky 2-0 start came courtesy of opening the season against New Mexico State and Texas State, two of the FBS' 15-worst teams. Since then, Nevada has lost to FCS Incarnate Word (by 14), Iowa (by 27), and Air Force (28 points).

With an intact offensive line, you take CSU's talent over Nevada's all day long. This is a circled game for CSU's staff. And that staff - and 11 of its players - know the opponent like the back of their hand. Give us the Rams to win their first game of the year.

Pick: CSU +3.5

Virginia (+3) vs. Louisville
ATL: UL -0.2

This will become my favorite bet of the week if Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is ruled out. But either way, I'm riding with Virginia.

Cunningham suffered an undisclosed injury in Saturday's loss to Boston College. He missed the final two drives in what turned out to be a 34-33 loss as double-digit favorites.

Cunningham is Louisville's entire offense. He leads the Cards in both rushing and passing yards and has accounted for 43.7% and 66.3% of the team's rushing and total yardage.

Cunningham was replaced by QB2 Brock Domann, who went 1-for-7 through the air while not providing any mobility. The downgrade from Domann to Cunningham is arguably worth a TD or more on the spread.

So if Cunningham is out, consider my spread more like UVA -7 or -8. Here was what SI's Louisville blog had to say: "Louisville is capital-S screwed if [Cunningham misses] time." UL HC Scott Satterfield, who is on a seat hotter than the sun's core, has refused to discuss Cunningham's injury or prognosis.

Like Louisville, Virginia has been a "sell" team for us for much of the season. But the Cavs have started to figure things out, namely, how to work around a poor OL. That had also previously been Boston College's bugaboo, but Louisville wasn't exactly able to exploit that. In fact, BC rushed for more yards last week than they had against their past three P5 opponents combined.

Virginia played quality games against ODU and Syracuse last month before succumbing to Duke in a back-to-back road spot last week. I think the Cavs will get back on track by upsetting Louisville.

Pick: UVA +3

Wisconsin (-10) at Northwestern
ATL: Wisko -12.9

This feels like a good opportunity for Wisconsin to get the ol' "dead cat bounce" after firing HC Paul Chryst. The Badgers get a poor opponent after a brutal opening slate (No. 12 SOS). And Wisconsin may be healthier this week than they've been a month.

Interim HC Jim Leonhard said he expects the team's top cover CB, Alexander Smith, to make his season debut this Saturday. That would greatly aid a secondary that has played down thus far.

Wisconsin also may be getting RB Isaac Guerendo, WR Keontez Lewis, TE Hayden Rucci, and RT Riley Mahlman back. All missed last week's game but have been removed from the injury report.

Wisconsin matches up well with Northwestern. As always, Wisconsin is a run-heavy outfit that needs to grind out consistent positive yardage on the ground to score. Northwestern's run defense ranks No. 125 SP+ and below No. 100 in both DL yards/carry and defensive stuff rate. Northwestern's feeble defensive front consistently gets shoved backward.

Wisconsin's receiving corps also has the advantage over Northwestern's secondary - QB Graham Mertz should get advantageous single-coverage looks off play action all afternoon.

On the other side, I struggle to see how Northwestern will score. The Wisconsin defense is still very strong (No. 14 SP+). The Wildcats will struggle to run the ball against Wisconsin's run fits. And while Northwestern's OL should provide QB Ryan Hilinski with time to throw, decision-making has been a concern, and Wisconsin's secondary is clearly superior to Northwestern's receiving corps.

This is a big-time motivation game for the Badgers in Leonhard's debut. And Leonhard's motivation couldn't be any higher - he's basically been given a seven-game audition for the permanent job. I expect a route.

Pick: Wisko -10

Mississippi State (-9) vs. Arkansas
ATL: MSU -12.2

Arkansas is in a terrible situation, traveling to an opponent they match up poorly against. And Arkansas may be playing without their star quarterback.

Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has not practiced this week as of Wednesday. The Hogs have been pretty mum about his status. So much so that it's getting weird. HC Sam Pittman on Wednesday corrected a reporter who asked about Jefferson being in the concussion protocol.

“I didn’t say that," Pittman said. "Anybody else?" The rest of Pittman's presser, he was affable, joking about bands and jukeboxes. Usually polite, Pittman, during one answer, said "Bless you" to a reporter who'd sneezed. He was only short that one time. Is it any coincidence that it was a response to the only question he was asked that day that mattered?

Jefferson took a huge shot and suffered a head injury last week. Pittman can say what he wants, and HIPAA laws certainly allow him to say as little as he ends up saying. But if Jefferson weren't in concussion protocol right now, Arkansas' team doctor would be facing a fate much worse than the Dolphins’ doctor who was just fired for his handling of Tua Tagovailoa's injury.

Pittman went on to say that he thought Jefferson would travel with the team to Starkville. This, too, was a telling quote. If Pittman thought Jefferson was playing on Saturday, he'd know - not think - Jefferson was traveling to said game.

A reporter halfway through the presser asked a clever question that revealed another telling Pittman quote. Asked what practice day during the week was most important in terms of deciding on an injured player's availability, Pittman said: "Wednesday is always our day, they have to do something by Wednesday, or we pretty much count them out for the game." Again: Jefferson did not practice on Wednesday.

No way to sugarcoat it: Arkansas' quarterback situation is ugly if Jefferson can't go. The team previously moved former QB Malik Hornsby to WR, leaving transfer Cade Fortin as the primary backup. Fortin could not hold onto the starting job at USF. In 131 career attempts, Fortin has completed less than 50% of his passes for fewer than five yards per attempt and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. The prospect of QB depth without Jefferson was so bad at the position that Pittman elected to move Hornsby back to QB this week.

Cade Fortin is not an FBS-caliber quarterback. Pittman referred to Fortin as the "throwing" backup, which tells you all you need to know about Hornsby's passing development if you didn't get the referendum from the move to receiver.

Pittman became less cagey when discussing hypothetical QB plans if Jefferson is out against MSU, stating that both Fortin and Hornsby would take snaps. It seemed like he had thought that one through.

My tea-leaf reading says Jefferson has little chance of playing, barring an enormous late-week breakthrough. If he doesn't, Arkansas won't be able to pass. This would allow Mississippi State's strong defense to devote all its resources to shutting down the run.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State's passing offense finally appears to be close to achieving singularity under Mike Leach for the first time. The Bulldogs get the ball into space and force the defense to tackle one-on-one.

Arkansas' biggest team weakness - when Jefferson is healthy - is either the pass defense (SP+ No. 102) or tackling (PFF No. 122). Arkansas is without both starting safeties from last year, one to transfer and the other to a season-ending injury, and its corners have been poor.

It would be shocking if Mississippi State couldn't do anything it wanted on offense. And if Jefferson doesn't play, Arkansas will play offense against a good defense with both hands tied behind its back.

Lastly, Mississippi State has outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter this year - first-quarter and/or first-half bets should also be considered.

Pick: Mississippi State -9 (1Q: MSU -3)

Boise State (-7.5) vs. Fresno State
ATL: BSU -12.8

Fresno State was at midfield down 21-10 in the third quarter when QB Jake Haener suffered his high-ankle sprain. The Bulldogs were outscored 24-7 from there and lost 45-17.

The Bulldogs had a bye last week to try and get QB2 Logan Fife acclimated. But that didn't save Fresno from an embarrassing 19-14 upset loss at UConn as 20-plus point favorites. Haener has already been ruled out for this game.

Boise State, meanwhile, is going to be much better going forward than they were over the first four-and-a-half games. Sitting at 2-2, Boise State went to halftime trailing San Diego State 13-0 last week. In the week leading up to the game, Boise State fired their OC and watched former starting QB Hank Bachmeier transfer out. Spurred by new OC Dirk Koetter's halftime adjustments, the Broncos outscored the Aztecs 35-0 in the 2H to win 35-13.

New BSU starting QB Taylen Green is a fabulous runner who has already rushed for more than 100 yards in two separate games. Green is a raw passer at present, but he and RB George Holani combine to form a devastating one-two ground punch.

Fresno's pass defense is decent. Its run defense is horrid. Boise's rushing attack should pile up yardage. On the other side, Fresno needs to move the ball on the ground with Haener out. But BSU knows that and has a top-10 run-efficiency defense to combat it.

Pick: Boise State -7.5

Massachusetts (+24.5) vs. Liberty
ATL: Liberty -25.4

You can think of this handicap as sort of like the Fresno State-UConn handicap. It's holding your nose and jumping with a terrible team because it’s getting over 20 points at home against an opponent with a decimated QB room.

In this case, it's looking like Liberty might have to roll with QB3 Johnathan Bennett again. That's because Week 1 starter Charlie Brewer is still out with a fractured hand, while QB2 Kaidon Salter was knocked out of last week's win over Old Dominion just before halftime.

Salter missed the Akron game with an ankle injury. Liberty, favored by nearly four touchdowns, only beat Akron 21-12. Bennett finished with an 18.0 QBR. Salter arguably shouldn't have played last week, but HC Hugh Freeze rushed him back to avoid starting Bennett again. Salter threw two INT in the first half (it should have been three).

This is what Freeze said after the game: "At some point, I believe Kaidon Salter is going to become a really, really good quarterback, and it's coming. He's just young. I got too negative on him, but he was just doing some crazy things and he was not feeling good. He's not well. He can't move right now and that's got his mind messed up and we've got to get back to see if our trainers can get him well for the second half of this season."

Bennett should not be starting FBS games. In 100 career attempts, the fourth-year quarterback has completed 48% of his passes for 6.7 YPA and an 8/7 TD/INT rate while rushing for 18 yards.

UMass HC Don Brown is outgunned in talent. But he shouldn't have a problem scheming a defense to hold down what will be a very limited Liberty offense. That should allow UMass to stay within this bloated number.

Pick: UMass +24.5

UAB (-9.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
ATL: UAB -12.9

This line is being depressed for two reasons: 1) Middle Tennessee is still getting extra credit for upsetting Miami, and 2) UAB is being downgraded for getting upset by Rice last time out.

But UAB's loss to Rice was fluky - UAB finished with a 92% postgame win expectancy. The Blazers are one of the nation's leaders in second-order win discrepancy. UAB is 2-2 with 3.2 second-order wins. This means they're solidly a 3-1 quality team.

MTSU is a pass-happy Air Raid team that needs to move the ball through the air if it's going to move it all. The problem for them in this game is that UAB's pass defense is elite. MTSU has bagged a bunch of expected points off explosive plays this fall. But here again, UAB is elite at preventing explosive plays.

MTSU likes to play fast, racing to the ball after completion for another snap. When the passing attack sputters, the rote yardage disappears, and so does MTSU's ability to coax mental mistakes or take advantage of gassed defensive backs off no-huddle snaps.

UAB's offensive prerogative is the opposite. It runs the ball with physicality. And then takes its time huddling and getting back to the line. This strategy should frustrate MTSU while giving UAB's defense more time to rest between drives.

Pick: UAB -9.5

Stanford (+7) vs. Oregon State
ATL: OSU -1.5

Stanford suffered from key injuries to the offensive line earlier in the season. The RT situation was particularly problematic. But the Cardinal righted the ship on that front by burning a redshirt on one of their promising youngsters.

Stanford's new slow-mesh offense - borrowed from Wake Forest - works so long as the backfield isn't immediately caved in. Stanford QB Tanner McKee is an NFL prospect and a quick decision-maker. One area to watch closely: Stanford ranks No. 20 in explosive plays, while Oregon State ranks only No. 85 in defensive explosion.

Fortunately for Stanford, not only is the offensive line finally looking up, but Oregon State's weakness as a team is its defensive front. The Beavers rank No. 120 in sack rate and aren't much better in the run game with the No. 84 DL yards/carry.

On defense, Stanford also doesn't get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. And it's fair to question the Cardinal pass defense. But Oregon State's passing attack is trending way down.

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan was knocked out of Saturday's loss to Utah with a neck strain. OSU HC Jonathan Smith has deemed Nolan "day-to-day." Tea-leaf reading at publication would give Nolan less than a coinflip shot of starting.

If Nolan doesn't, QB2 Ben Gulbranson will draw his first collegiate start. Gulbranson threw two interceptions off the bench in the loss to the Utes. Last season, Oregon State's passing offense was greatly aided by an awesome OSU run game. This year, with RB BJ Baylor having graduated, that running attack is way down.

I like Stanford to keep this one close and possibly pull off a much-needed upset.

Pick: Stanford +7

Miami (FL)-UNC o65.5
ATT: 84.5

My system absolutely loves the over in this game, and I'm going along for the ride. The market seems to be a bit down on UNC's offense after the Notre Dame loss and is, of course, way down on Miami's following the MTSU loss. Sharp bettors also may be bracing for a weather game: Current forecasts call for 16 mph during gametime, with a decent chance of precipitation.

All of this may have opened a window of value for us. Wind affects point totals, but not to the degree that ATT shows value on the over. For both offenses, this is an awesome get-right opportunity. UNC's offense has scored 35 points or more in all five games. It ranks top-5 in both explosiveness and finishing drives.

Miami has consistently been burned by big plays. The Hurricanes rank No. 118 in defensive explosion. It'll be strength-on-weakness when UNC's top-10 passing offense throws into Miami's No. 129 SP+-rated pass defense.

On the other side, Miami hasn't generated explosive plays all season. But they've shown an ability to move the ball between the 20s, and the offensive line has played well. The lack of points in scoring opportunities - see Texas A&M game - won't be a problem against UNC's defense, one of the most generous in the nation.

Miami's offensive line - a bright spot so far - will manhandle UNC's defensive front. That'll keep the Canes on schedule throughout the game. And against UNC's rotten secondary (No. 110 PFF coverage grade), expect a get-right game for QB Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke, who came into this season as an R1 hopeful, was benched against MTSU.

Miami has had two weeks to prepare after last week's bye. I expect a big bounce-back from the Canes' offense. The game’s outcome could go either way, but I expect the winner to prevail in a shootout.

Pick: OVER 65.5

Western Kentucky-UTSA o71
ATT: 78.5

Speaking of shootouts!

UTSA's rushing attack and defense are both way, way down from last season. Fortunately, the passing attack has gotten even better. UTSA QB Frank Harris is averaging over 330 passing YPG.

The Road Runners start three receivers who will all get NFL looks. UTSA ranks top-5 nationally in PFF receiving grade. Western Kentucky's pass defense is mediocre, and it can't get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Harris and company should have huge games.

Same thing for WKU QB Austin Reed. WKU also has an insane WR corps and loves hunting for big plays. WKU ranks No. 3 in offensive explosion. UTSA's defense has cratered this season. It ranks No. 112 in defensive explosion, No. 130 in PFF tackling, and No. 106 in PFF coverage grade.

I'm expecting this game to crack the 80-point threshold.

Pick: OVER 71

Two bonus picks for this week with my handicapping profiles for both games:

Eastern Michigan (+5) at Western Michigan
ATL: WMU -3.8

*Note: EMU QB Taylor Powell should be back. HC Chris Creighton said Powell was cleared to play last week. Powell dressed for the game but ultimately didn't enter, probably because the opponent was UMass.

Category	Away	Rank	Rank	Home	Category
FBS record	Eastern Michigan	2-2	1-3	Western Michigan	FBS record
2nd-order Ws	Eastern Michigan	2.73	1.48	Western Michigan	2nd-order Ws
2OW +/-	Eastern Michigan	-0.27	-0.52	Western Michigan	2OW +/-
SP+ SOS	Eastern Michigan	123	104	Western Michigan	SP+ SOS
SP+ resume	Eastern Michigan	121	113	Western Michigan	SP+ resume
ATL PR	Eastern Michigan	112	107	Western Michigan	ATL PR
SP+ offense	Eastern Michigan	85	100	Western Michigan	SP+ defense
SP+ defense	Eastern Michigan	124	114	Western Michigan	SP+ offense
FO sp. teams	Eastern Michigan	41	19	Western Michigan	FO sp. teams
O success rate	Eastern Michigan	25	102	Western Michigan	D success rate
D success rate	Eastern Michigan	128	108	Western Michigan	O success rate
O explosion	Eastern Michigan	121	128	Western Michigan	D explosion
D explosion	Eastern Michigan	44	104	Western Michigan	O explosion
SP+ run O	Eastern Michigan	32	106	Western Michigan	SP+ run D
SP+ run D	Eastern Michigan	120	104	Western Michigan	SP+ run O
SP+ pass O	Eastern Michigan	82	128	Western Michigan	SP+ pass D
SP+ pass D	Eastern Michigan	124	111	Western Michigan	SP+ pass O
OL yds/carry	Eastern Michigan	11	79	Western Michigan	DL yds/carry
DL yds/carry	Eastern Michigan	113	118	Western Michigan	OL yds/carry
O opp. rate	Eastern Michigan	10	66	Western Michigan	D opp. rate
D opp. rate	Eastern Michigan	97	104	Western Michigan	Opp. rate
OL stuff rate	Eastern Michigan	30	64	Western Michigan	DL stuff rate
DL stuff rate	Eastern Michigan	119	119	Western Michigan	OL stuff rate
Sack rate O	Eastern Michigan	95	65	Western Michigan	Sack rate D
Sack rate D	Eastern Michigan	128	96	Western Michigan	Sack rate O
Havoc allowed	Eastern Michigan	56	91	Western Michigan	Defensive Havoc
Defensive Havoc	Eastern Michigan	130	119	Western Michigan	Havoc allowed
PFF tackling	Eastern Michigan	27	85	Western Michigan	PFF tackling
PFF receiving	Eastern Michigan	95	101	Western Michigan	PFF coverage
PFF coverage	Eastern Michigan	98	82	Western Michigan	PFF receiving
Kick return	Eastern Michigan	9	33	Western Michigan	Kickoff coverage
Kickoff coverage	Eastern Michigan	112	18	Western Michigan	Kick return
Punt return	Eastern Michigan	103	19	Western Michigan	Punt coverage
Punt coverage	Eastern Michigan	70	111	Western Michigan	Punt return
FG efficiency	Eastern Michigan	37	17	Western Michigan	FG efficiency
Adjusted tempo	Eastern Michigan	57	86	Western Michigan	Adjusted tempo
	Total	57.5	66.5	Projected total
Spread	Eastern Michigan	5	-5	Western Michigan	Spread
Projected spread	Eastern Michigan	3.8	-3.8	Western Michigan	Projected spread

Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. BYU
ATL: ND -8.9

Category	Away	Rank	Rank	Home	Category
FBS record	Brigham Young	4-1	2-2	Notre Dame	FBS record
2nd-order Ws	Brigham Young	3.72	2.03	Notre Dame	2nd-order Ws
2OW +/-	Brigham Young	-0.28	0.03	Notre Dame	2OW +/-
SP+ SOS	Brigham Young	48	5	Notre Dame	SP+ SOS
SP+ resume	Brigham Young	54	45	Notre Dame	SP+ resume
ATL PR	Brigham Young	34	24	Notre Dame	ATL PR
SP+ offense	Brigham Young	35	25	Notre Dame	SP+ defense
SP+ defense	Brigham Young	44	44	Notre Dame	SP+ offense
FO sp. teams	Brigham Young	118	32	Notre Dame	FO sp. teams
O success rate	Brigham Young	64	24	Notre Dame	D success rate
D success rate	Brigham Young	65	12	Notre Dame	O success rate
O explosion	Brigham Young	16	28	Notre Dame	D explosion
D explosion	Brigham Young	18	129	Notre Dame	O explosion
SP+ run O	Brigham Young	74	51	Notre Dame	SP+ run D
SP+ run D	Brigham Young	67	29	Notre Dame	SP+ run O
SP+ pass O	Brigham Young	28	14	Notre Dame	SP+ pass D
SP+ pass D	Brigham Young	50	60	Notre Dame	SP+ pass O
OL yds/carry	Brigham Young	99	105	Notre Dame	DL yds/carry
DL yds/carry	Brigham Young	118	27	Notre Dame	OL yds/carry
O opp. rate	Brigham Young	85	124	Notre Dame	D opp. rate
D opp. rate	Brigham Young	110	64	Notre Dame	Opp. rate
OL stuff rate	Brigham Young	110	56	Notre Dame	DL stuff rate
DL stuff rate	Brigham Young	119	17	Notre Dame	OL stuff rate
Sack rate O	Brigham Young	50	16	Notre Dame	Sack rate D
Sack rate D	Brigham Young	45	79	Notre Dame	Sack rate O
Havoc allowed	Brigham Young	35	78	Notre Dame	Defensive Havoc
Defensive Havoc	Brigham Young	97	89	Notre Dame	Havoc allowed
PFF tackling	Brigham Young	47	19	Notre Dame	PFF tackling
PFF receiving	Brigham Young	11	103	Notre Dame	PFF coverage
PFF coverage	Brigham Young	47	84	Notre Dame	PFF receiving
Kick return	Brigham Young	69	22	Notre Dame	Kickoff coverage
Kickoff coverage	Brigham Young	121	66	Notre Dame	Kick return
Punt return	Brigham Young	64	23	Notre Dame	Punt coverage
Punt coverage	Brigham Young	68	41	Notre Dame	Punt return
FG efficiency	Brigham Young	114	58	Notre Dame	FG efficiency
Adjusted tempo	Brigham Young	83	90	Notre Dame	Adjusted tempo
	Total	51	60	Projected total
Spread	Brigham Young	3.5	-3.5	Notre Dame	Spread
Projected spread	Brigham Young	8.9	-8.9	Notre Dame	Projected spread

Pick: ND -3.5

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