Best NFL Player Props & Picks: Saints vs. Giants (Week 6)

The New Orleans Saints head to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants on Sunday, October 18, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET. Our best NFL player props for Saints vs. Giants highlight opportunities across passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown markets. Through Weeks 1-5, the BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet generated +25 units of profit and a 3.2% ROI across 803 picks, with anytime touchdown selections contributing +12.3 units at a 59.4% win rate. Check out our top Week 6 prop picks below.

NFL Player Props, Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Giants

Here are some of Andrew Erickson’s top picks for Saints vs. Giants. And check out all of his top picks for NFL Week 6.

Best Bets for Saints vs. Giants

New Orleans' games are averaging 53.8 combined points against an average closing total of 45.9, and the Saints allow 30.2 per game. The Giants have gone Over in their last two games (60 and 54 points).

I think there’s some value on the total after the Saints’ offense got erased by the Vikings’ defense in Week 5. I know they are dealing with offensive line injuries, but the fact that they are so pass-heavy keeps the total going over well within striking distance.

There will be some bad plays for Tyler Shough for sure, given he will see a lot of blitzes.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats: Shough has been blitzed on 32.4% of dropbacks this season (league average: 32.2%) and has averaged 5.4 yards per attempt (6th-lowest) and a 6.8% explosive pass rate (2nd-lowest). When facing four or fewer pass-rushers, Shough has averaged the ninth-lowest yards per attempt (6.8) but the sixth-highest explosive pass rate (17.1%).

Shough has also recorded a 49.2% passing success rate against man coverage this season, the eighth-highest in the NFL. The Giants’ defense has played man coverage on 35.9% of dropbacks this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Following Brian Burns’ season-ending knee injury in Week 3, the Giants’ defense has blitzed on 57.9% of dropbacks since Week 4, trailing only the Vikings (63.8%).

This feels like a very boom-or-bust type of game for the Saints’ second-year signal-caller. But if the blitz doesn’t come home, New York can get burned on the back end for chunk plays.

Neither defense is good:

The Saints have the second-worst defense in points per game allowed this season (30.2) and a bottom-10 pressure rate
Both defenses are bottom-10 in yards per play allowed (Saints 7th-worst in EPA/pass attempt faced)
Both are bottom-12 in EPA/play allowed.
Both are bottom-six run defenses.
Both are below-average red-zone defenses.

The Giants have played in the rain for three straight weeks, but the forecast looks decent for this matchup here.

This should be a fun matchup with Jameis Winston in a revenge game versus New Orleans. In Winston's last 11 full starts: 8-3 toward the over (4-1 toward the over since the start of last season). New Orleans’ defense is allowing the second-highest separation to opposing wide receivers (tied with Dallas).

Winston should be extremely efficient (or as efficient as a Winston-led pass attack can be). But the Giants’ rushing attack should also produce.

The Saints’ defense has allowed a league-high 133.4 rushing yards per game to running backs; no defense has allowed more yards per carry before (1.3) and after (3.8) contact this season (6th-highest run rate faced). Seven running backs have hit at least 54 yards in five games versus the Saints. Cam Skattebo has 56.5 rushing yards in four out of five games this season and in every healthy game since Week 3 of last season.

Seth mentioned Najee Harris to score as a strong long-shot touchdown bet on the Best Bets Show for Week 6, and I like it as well. Harris has seven red-zone carries this season without a touchdown (including a goal-line rush last week). The Saints are last in rushing touchdowns allowed this season. No player has longer touchdown odds with as many red-zone carries as Harris does this season.

Erickson’s Picks

Over 44.5 Points
Cam Skattebo OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350)

Best NFL Same Game Parlay for Saints vs. Giants

Here is our top NFL same game parlay for Saints vs. Giants. And you can view all of our Week 6 NFL same game parlays.

Leg 1: Cam Skattebo 50+ Rushing Yards (-138)
Leg 2: Isaiah Likely 50+ Receiving Yards (-131)
Leg 3: Juwan Johnson 50+ Receiving Yards (-123)

Cam Skattebo gets one of the best matchups a running back can ask for. The Saints are allowing a league-high 133.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. The defense gave up 113 yards to Aaron Jones last week and 145 to Bijan Robinson the game prior. Let's back Skattebo to follow suit.

The Giants' lead back hasn't been very efficient this year, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. However, he usually sees enough carries to produce yards. Skattebo has at least 50 rushing yards in four out of five games. Meanwhile, New Orleans has allowed 60+ rushing yards to five different running backs this season.

Sticking with the New York offense, bank on Isaiah Likely taking advantage of his own favorable matchup. The Saints are allowing the fourth-most targets and fifth-most receptions per game to tight ends. They're also giving up 71.2 receiving yards per game to the position, ranking seventh-worst in the NFL. That bodes well for Likely, who just caught 11 passes for 94 yards last week. He also has 60+ yards in three out of five games so far.

Meanwhile, the other tight end in this game should produce as well. The Giants are allowing the sixth-most receptions and targets per game to opposing tight ends. That brings us to Juwan Johnson, who's been a consistent option for Tyler Shough in the Saints' passing attack. He has 50+ yards in four out of five games. Last week was the outlier, though Johnson still caught four passes. Expect a bounce-back effort in this matchup.

Parlay Odds: +425

Best NFL Player Props for Saints vs. Giants

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the NFL player prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best NFL player prop bet picks. View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Our NFL Player Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily NFL projections.

What is an NFL player prop bet?

An NFL player prop bet is a type of wager where you’re betting on the performance of a specific player in a game rather than the overall outcome. For example, you might place a bet on how many passing yards a quarterback will throw for, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. It’s a fun way to get more invested in the action, especially if you’re confident in how a particular player will perform, regardless of who wins or loses the game. It’s like focusing on one slice of the pie instead of the whole thing.

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