College Football Best Bets: Week 3 (2020)

In an article posted back in May, I listed the five best tips to use to be a successful college basketball bettor. One of them was to find one or two smaller conferences to specialize in as oddsmakers would likely be one step ahead of bettors when it comes to the major conferences.

So far in the college football season, it has been much easier than in years past to specialize in smaller conferences or learn more about the smaller schools. Since three power conferences have yet to play a game, smaller schools are getting more attention on national television. We used some of our plays last week on smaller conference teams like Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette from the Sun Belt, and it paid off huge dividends with a 3-1 week.

Here are my top-five plays from Week 3 in college football.

Get a risk-free bet up to $1,000 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Best Bets for Week 3: College Football

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 3-1
YTD: 3-1

Boston College at Duke (-5.5)
The Duke Blue Devils have a distinct advantage in this game outside of playing at home. They had the benefit of playing a tough opponent in Notre Dame last week while Boston College does not yet have any game action under its belt. Boston College optimists will say that gives the Eagles an advantage in that they have the game film available to scout Duke. However, any coach will tell you there is no way to simulate game speed in practice and that game experience serves as an excellent teaching tool.

Boston College was able to complete just five spring practices amid all the COVID-19 concerns. That is an issue from an experience standpoint, especially since they are learning a new system under first-year head coach Jeff Hafley. In addition, the Eagles have not yet named a starting quarterback based on their depth chart, but many who cover the team believe it will be transfer Phil Jurkovec who played in limited action while at Notre Dame. In addition, BC’s defense was not good last year as they allowed 32 points per game and big offensive days to poor offenses like Kansas and Florida State.

There are too many unknowns surrounding Boston College, who was predicted to finish 13th in the ACC preseason poll. Meanwhile, Duke gave Notre Dame all they could handle last week and should be able to cover this number in their home opener.

PICK: Duke -5.5

Houston (+3.5) at Baylor
Keeping with the narrative in the Boston College-Duke game, Houston conducted eight spring practices while Baylor was not able to hold any under new head coach Dave Aranda. In addition, last week’s opener for Baylor against Louisiana Tech was postponed after a number of positive COVID-19 tests surfaced. It is anyone’s guess who on the team was affected or what their long-term effects are, but it was noticeable that key starters like center Xavier Newman, defensive end Gabe Hall, defensive lineman Rob Saulin and middle linebacker Matt Jones were missing from last week’s depth chart.

Taking all that into consideration, I have no faith in backing a team with so much turnover in their coaching staff and that has many question marks from a health standpoint on their roster.

PICK: Houston +3.5

Navy +7 at Tulane
This is the ultimate contrarian play as the country got to watch Navy get trounced on national television on Labor Day by BYU. Reports surfaced throughout the game that head coach Ken Niumataolo did not allow full-contact practices leading up to the opener as a means to help keep his players safe and healthy. It showed in their play on the field as the Midshipmen looked out of sync on offense and had shoddy tackling on defense.

One has to believe that the Navy will have used the added time off in advance of this game against Tulane to iron out most of their mistakes. In addition, Tulane had a ton of problems themselves last week against South Alabama. The Green Wave failed to cover as 11-point favorites and almost lost outright as they needed 21 unanswered points to dig out of a 24-6 hole and win 27-24. The Midshipmen are a resilient bunch, and while the rest of the country has their dreadful Week 1 performance in their minds, we like them to bounce back with a much more spirited effort.

PICK: Navy +7

Syracuse at Pittsburgh UNDER 49.5 points
For three quarters last week, it looked like Syracuse was on the verge of a massive upset over a top-20 North Carolina team. They trailed 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter but 21 unanswered points by the Tar Heels put the game away. One could look at this game and say the Syracuse defense played pretty well for most of the game, and they did hold their own. However, this bet is all about Syracuse’s ineptness on offense and their lack of faith that their offense will ever get on track.

Syracuse managed just 202 total yards for the game and an abysmal 1.9 yards per carry. Quarterback Tommy DeVito completed under 30% of his passes, and they committed eight penalties as a team. Meanwhile, the under is 5-0 in the last five games after Pittsburgh scores 40 or more points. In addition, the under is 12-4 in Syracuse’s last 16 September games and 8-2 in their last ten games on grass.

PICK: UNDER 49.5 points

Miami-Louisville UNDER 64.5 points

This total opened at 60.5 at many books and has been bet all the way up to 64.5. I get the love on the over in this game. Most bettors see electrifying dual-threat quarterbacks in Miami’s D’Eriq King and Lousiville’s Micale Cunningham and think that a shootout is imminent. I would remind those bettors that Louisville scored just seven second-half points last week against Western Kentucky, and Miami under-performed on offense against UAB while failing to cover the 55-point total.

It is still just the second game these two teams have played and there will still be some rust to knock off. In addition, the under is 6-0 in Miami’s last six games as a road underdog and head coach Manny Diaz has an outstanding defensive mind that is capable of neutralizing others’ best weapons.

PICK: UNDER 64.5 points

Get a risk-free bet up to $1,000 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.