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College Football Best Bets: Week 7 (2020)

by October 15, 2020

Week 7 in college football was set to be our most exciting yet. Most eyes were on the SEC, as two heavyweight battles between LSU and Florida and No. 3 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama dominated the national picture. However, as is becoming all too often this year, these two games are the two seemingly most affected by the pandemic. The LSU-Florida game has already been postponed, while bettors are left to wonder what Alabama coach Nick Saban’s positive COVID-19 test will mean for their Saturday night tilt. In all, there are three games that are postponed this week, and let’s keep our fingers crossed that it will stay that way.

Here are my top four plays for Week 7 in college football.

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Best Bets for Week 7: College Football

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 2-2
YTD: 12-8

BYU (-5.5) vs. Houston

Two of the top six highest-scoring teams in the country meet in this matchup of Cougars. However, take that statistic with a grain of salt because Houston has played just one game so far this season. Houston overcame a 24-7 second-quarter deficit to beat Tulane 49-31 despite turning the ball over five times. If they are that careless with the football again, No. 14 BYU will have their way with them.

There is an argument to be made that Houston has an advantage because BYU has just one game of film to scout them — in contrast, Houston has four games worth of tape on BYU. However, I see things differently To me, BYU is the more seasoned team, and they’re more used to live-game action. If quarterback Zach Wilson keeps playing the way he has thus far, he will start to earn Heisman consideration. Wilson is second in the NCAA with 1,241 passing yards and has an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 83.0 QBR is ninth in the country, and his completion percentage is a whopping 81.2%. BYU was not all that impressive last week as 34-point favorites that narrowly beat UTSA 27-20. However, that makes this is a great buy-low spot for BYU, as they won their other three games by an average margin of 41.3 PPG.

PICK: BYU -5.5

Kentucky at Tennessee O/U 45.5

Coming into the season, the Kentucky Wildcats were thought to have one of the more underrated defenses in the SEC under head coach Mark Stoops. They did not play well on that side of the ball in their first two games, as they gave up 35.5 PPG to Auburn and Ole Miss. However, they turned in one of the best defensive performances of the season last week, as their defense did not allow a point in a 24-2 win over Mississippi State’s air raid offense.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is coming off a game that Georgia dominated after halftime. The Vols got outscored 27-0 in the second half en route to a 44-21 loss in Athens. Georgia held Tennessee to a mind-boggling -1 yards rushing on 27 attempts. While Kentucky does not have the same studs on the defensive line that Georgia does, they should be able to replicate the formula that made life so difficult for the Volunteers to move the football. In addition, Mark Stoops loves to run the ball at Kentucky, and at first glance, Tennessee’s 193 rushing yards allowed to Georgia seem to spell doom. However, the Bulldogs attempted 50 rushes, so that averages out to less than four yards per carry. Both defenses should be able to limit each other’s biggest strength, that and will result in a low-scoring affair.

Lastly, it is not like Kentucky’s offense did anything spectacular last week….

PICK: UNDER 45.5 

Ole Miss at Arkansas (+1.5)

Many bettors will walk away impressed that Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense scored 48 points and amassed 647 total yards against the vaunted Alabama Crimson Tide defense. However, their defense had a historically bad day, as they gave up 63 points and 723 yards on their own. Then there is the question of if Ole Miss was stealing signals from Alabama.

Whether they stole signals or not, last week was Ole Miss’s Super Bowl with their head coach wanting nothing more than to show off for his former boss on the other side. The Razorbacks get a pass for their 1-2 start because each game came against a ranked opponent. They are battle-tested, and they have proven not to be a pushover in the SEC this year. They should have won last week’s game at Auburn, and they’ll take their anger out on an Ole Miss team that may not have their full attention.

PICK: Arkansas +1.5

North Carolina at Florida State O/U 63.5

Last week, taking the under in the Florida State-Notre Dame game burned us. We had we speculated that the COVID-19 outbreak in South Bend would cause the Fighting Irish to come out sloppy. Instead, the Notre Dame offensive line manhandled Florida State’s front seven for 353 rushing yards and 8.4 YPC. Meanwhile, the Seminoles’ offense was able to hit on some big plays with wide receiver Tamorrion Terry. In addition, quarterback Jordan Travis looked very comfortable in his first start and showed a tremendous dual-threat ability with 204 yards passing and 96 yards rushing.

As bad as Florida State is at stopping the run, North Carolina is the last team that they want to see. The Tar Heels have the best running back tandem in the country in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. The duo combined for 383 yards on 37 carries against Virginia Tech last week. If the Seminoles load the box to stop the run, quarterback Sam Howell is talented enough to expose them. There will be plenty of points in this one.

PICK: OVER 63.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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