For the first time all season, we "took one on the chin" and find ourselves on the wrong side of .500. The lone standout from last week's 1-4 mark was tipping Illinois as a +31 point underdog against Wisconsin. Illinois figured to not have Wisconsin's full attention with this week's colossal matchup against Ohio State looming. If only we had suggested Illinois and the money line, all would have been forgiven.
As we enter Week 9, all Power 5 conferences have teams with playoff aspirations still alive. More clarity is sure to be provided with three top 25 matchups (Wisconsin-Ohio State, Auburn-LSU, Notre Dame-Michigan). Other playoff contenders face tough road contests against conference rivals, such as Penn State traveling to Michigan State. Let's take a look at some of these games and others in this week's selections.
Here are my five best bets for Week 9 of the college football season.
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Best Bets for Week 9: College Football
(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 1-4
YTD: 18-20-2
Wisconsin +14 at Ohio State
I have always been a proponent of "fading the public," and this is a prime spot to do so. Wisconsin's playoff hopes took a huge hit last week with an unexplainable loss at Illinois. Meanwhile, Ohio State has looked invincible all year. Justin Fields and Ryan Day have stepped in admirably for Dwayne Haskins and Urban Meyer, as the Buckeyes are beating teams by an average of 49.7-8.0. Fields is squarely in the Heisman conversation, and Ohio State is as good a bet as any to make the playoffs.
As explained last week, Wisconsin was due for a letdown game (although I never thought they'd lose!) as they looked ahead to this matchup. Much has been made of Wisconsin's conservative gameplan last week, but I bet part of that was them not wanting to show too much to the Buckeyes. Wisconsin's playoff hopes are not dead, as running the table would put them back squarely in the discussion. I look for Wisconsin linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr to frustrate Ohio St. running back J.K. Dobbins and make this the biggest test Justin Fields has seen thus far. The Badgers will turn in a much more spirited effort on the road this week.
Michigan PK vs. Notre Dame
Another pick that is sure to "fade the public" is Michigan in a pick'em against a higher-ranked Notre Dame team. Notre Dame is rested off a bye, and much has been made about Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh's lack of success against top-10 teams. Harbaugh is 43-16 in his five-plus seasons at Michigan but is just 1-10 against top-10 teams.
Why is Michigan not an underdog in this matchup? To start, Notre Dame is 1-7 SU in its last eight trips to Ann Arbor. Also, Michigan is 4-0 ATS at home vs. Notre Dame since 2007. Oddsmakers must also believe Michigan found something offensively in their second-half comeback against Penn State last week. The Wolverines had an impressive 417 total yards in a tough-fought 28-21 loss at Happy Valley. I will buy that this offensive rejuvenance carries over to this week. Look for Michigan to end the Irish's playoff hopes.
Arkansas at Alabama UNDER 55.5
Alabama fans wait with bated breath in hopes that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa recovers well from ankle surgery. Tagovailoa left last week's game against Tennessee with a high ankle sprain. Redshirt sophomore Mac Jones replaced Tua and was not asked to do much in relief as he went 6/11 for 72 yards passing.
Alabama has a bye next week and then welcomes LSU for a possible #1 vs #2 showdown three weeks from now. I expect Alabama coach Nick Saban to call a very conservative gameplan against the only winless team in conference play. Saban is looking to get everyone out of this game healthy as they head into their bye week. Arkansas should do nothing offensively against this stout defense, thus resulting in a sloppy game that goes under the total.
Auburn at LSU OVER 58.5
Auburn has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country to date, and have looked awfully impressive thus far. Not many teams can claim the caliber of wins they have, after defeating Oregon and Texas A&M. Outside of a 24-13 loss at Florida, Auburn is averaging 45 PPG in conference play. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix has proved he is capable of leading this offense against the best of competition.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has gone from 200-1 longshot before the season, to the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy. LSU ranks third in the country with 539.9 YPG and second in the country with 50.1 PPG. The last four games between these teams at LSU have gone over the total as well. Look for another shootout in this one.
Appalachian State at South Alabama +26.5
One of these bets is not like the others. We break away from the week's most high-profile games to take a flyer on this Sun Belt tilt. Appalachian State has rolled to a 6-0 record, even beating ACC opponent North Carolina in the process. As a result, they earned a #21 ranking in the latest AP Poll, and keep their quest alive for a "Group of Five" New Year's Day bowl bid.
South Alabama is 1-6, and 0-3 in the conference. Their best claim is that they battled Nebraska on the road in Week 1, only losing by 14 points. According to covers.com, a whopping 72% of the money is being bet on Appalachian State -26.5. If oddsmakers made this spread -36.5, they likely would have received similar action. This smells like they know something here, and for the second week in a row, I will bet against a team that won't be fully engaged.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.