The College Football Playoff got underway last night, with #9 Alabama defeating #8 Oklahoma in Norman in a 34-24 affair. The first round continues today with another trio of games. Below, I'll dive into the final two contests from a sports betting angle, providing you with my top bets in each game. Here are my best CFP bets for Saturday, December 20.
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Saturday's Best Bowl Game Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tulane (+17.5) vs. Ole Miss (-17.5) | O/U 57.5 (-112/-108)
The midday matchup today features an AAC-SEC rematch from earlier in the year, as the #11 Tulane Green Wave (11-2) are set to square off against the #6 Ole Miss Rebels (11-1). The Rebs cruised past the Group-of-Five opponent 45-10 back on September 20 in Oxford. Saturday's game gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS.
As you're likely aware, there has been some turmoil surrounding the Ole Miss football program recently, with head coach Lane Kiffin departing to take the same job at LSU. I think this will give us a good chance to fade the Rebels this postseason, but that opportunity won't come in the first round against a severely inferior opponent. I'm laying the points with Mississippi this afternoon.
This will be our first data point that sees a G5 opponent play in a true road game in the opening round of the CFP. Last year's representative, Boise State, received a first-round bye before getting hammered 31-14 by Penn State in a neutral-site contest. Vaught-Hemingway is going to be rocking this afternoon, and I don't expect Tulane to handle the pressure. This team ranked 41st in turnovers (1.08 per game) this season, while sitting 122nd in penalty yards (65.9 per game). A few false starts or untimely penalties from Tulane could put them in very unfavorable down-and-distance scenarios.
Plus, remember that we've already seen these teams play this season. Tulane's giving up 255.2 passing yards per game (124th) this season, but when these teams met, it was Ole Miss' run game that gashed them for 307 yards on the ground. They racked up 548 total offensive yards in the 35-point rout. This game should be a bit closer than 35 points, but I still expect to see Ole Miss take care of business with ease.
Pick: Ole Miss Rebels -17.5 (-108)
James Madison (+21.0) vs. Oregon (-21.0) | O/U 45.5 (-112/-108)
The three-game college football slate wraps up out west this evening, with the #5 Oregon Ducks (11-1) hosting the #12 James Madison Dukes (12-1). The Sun Belt champion Dukes have their work cut out for themselves, as they come into this first-round showdown as three-touchdown underdogs. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Eugene, Oregon.
Oregon's lone blemish this season was an outright home loss against Big Ten champions Indiana in a 30-20 affair. The Ducks posted an 11-1 record, and their 23.3-point average margin of victory against FBS-level competition was the fifth-best in the nation. In my opinion, Dan Lanning has proven that he's one of the premier coaches in the college football world, and I'm not expecting any slip-ups when they host the Dukes on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Ducks.
I simply don't see Oregon getting off track offensively in this game. They're sixth in the nation in yards per play (7.1), while averaging an excellent 5.8 rushing yards per attempt (4th). On the defensive side, the Ducks have also held up well in the trenches, where they're conceding only 3.2 rushing yards per attempt (15th). James Madison is not built to play from behind, as quarterback Alonza Barnett III posted an underwhelming 59.9% completion rate and a 21/8 TD/INT ratio. They're going to be trailing on Saturday, and I don't see them making this game interesting at all. Give me the Ducks to notch what will be their seventh win of 20+ points this year.
Pick: Oregon Ducks -21.0 (-108)
