Friday is the final full slate of football of the college football season. There are four games on the schedule, which means there are plenty of opportunities for best bets. Let's take a look at some of the matchups to find sides and totals that have the most value on the board. See below for our top college football picks & predictions.
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Friday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State
The day gets started with an in-state rivalry between Rice and Texas State in the Armed Forces Bowl. Rice finished the season 5-7 and snuck into bowl season, but that didn't prevent a mass move to the portal. The biggest loss is quarterback Chase Jenkins, who was not only the leading passer but the second-leading rusher on the team. While this will give some of the young Rice quarterbacks a chance to show what they can do, Rice’s offense should be impacted.
The Owls were one of the best running teams in the American Conference. The only teams in the conference to run more than the Owls were the two service academies. We can expect them to try to slow the pace and control the ball as long as possible against this Texas State offense.
The Bobcats, led by quarterback Brad Jackson, accumulated over 3,000 yards through the air on the season. But it was actually the legs of Jackson, as well as running back Lincoln Pare, who found the end zone 27 times during the regular season. They managed to score 36.1 points per game (PPG) during the season, which trailed only playoff-bound James Madison.
These are two teams with drastically different styles of play. The spread indicates that this one won't be close, but Rice should be able to slow this one down enough to keep things close for a while. Texas State may still win by two or three scores, but the game should go under the total.
Pick: Under 55.5 Points (-110)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati
This one is a pretty easy call. Service academies cover in bowl games at a 73% rate over the last 22 years. In today's college football landscape, full of opt-outs and portal-hoppers, you can expect that rate to increase. Navy isn't a team you have to worry about too many healthy players missing. Cincinnati, on the other hand, will have a decimated roster in this one.
Not only will the Bearcats be without quarterback Brendan Sorsby and defensive tackle Dontay Corleone, but eight players in the defensive backfield have declared their intention to enter the portal and will not be playing in this game. If you aren't familiar with Navy, you may think that the lack of experience and depth in the Cincinnati secondary won't matter, but they feature a running game that excels at getting to the second level.
This Cincinnati roster is a shell of the one that started the season 7-1. They'll go up against a disciplined and strong Navy team. It's best to follow the trends here in the Liberty Bowl and back the better team on the spread.
Pick: Navy -7.5 (+100)
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl: No. 17 Arizona vs. SMU
One of the last non-College Football Playoff (CFP) games is between Arizona and SMU in the Holiday Bowl, in a matchup where we might see fireworks. These were both top-40 offenses by expected points added (EPA) per play and are more than capable of putting up points.
The Wildcats were the third-highest scoring offense in an offense-focused Big 12. Only Texas Tech and Utah scored more than Arizona. Arizona features an impressive passing offense, led by quarterback Noah Fifita, that spreads the ball around efficiently and effectively. The SMU secondary gave up some big games this year. TCU, Clemson and Cal were able to throw for well over 300 yards apiece and have success finding the end zone against SMU.
The SMU offense was impressive in its own right. This is a unit that scored 26 points against a vaunted Miami defense with Kevin Jennings throwing for 365 yards. They scored at least 30 points in eight games this season, and their scoring average was in the top four in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).
Both these teams can light up the scoreboard, and with the long layoff, we could see some rust on both defenses. Sit back and enjoy two strong offenses battle it out in a primer for the CFP semi-finals next week.
Pick: Over 52.5 Points (-115)
