Thursday’s Week 5 college football slate features two games. New Mexico State hosts Western Kentucky in a Conference USA matchup to get things started. Then, North Texas takes on Tulsa in an American Athletic Conference showdown. These may be under-the-radar games, but we still have profitable betting angles to lock in. Let’s dive into the top college football picks and predictions before you enjoy tonight’s games.
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Thursday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions (Week 5)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State Aggies
These Conference USA foes are both 1-3 ahead of Thursday night's matchup. New Mexico State is a slight 2.5-point home favorite with a 57.5 over/under. Instead of picking a side, let's focus on the Western Kentucky team total for our best bet.
The Hilltoppers' offense was stifled in the first three losses to Nevada, Georgia and Indiana. They then broke out for 52 points and 596 total yards of offense in a blowout win over Mercyhurst last week. Yes, it was an easy opponent, but it was a good reminder of how explosive the attack can be.
Western Kentucky ranked 45th nationally in total offense last season while averaging 29.5 points per game (PPG). The Hilltoppers also averaged 34.8 PPG over their final four conference games a season ago, when Rodney Tisdale Jr. was at quarterback. Tisdale is back, and he just went off for 309 passing yards and four passing touchdowns last week.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State's defense has struggled. The Aggies have allowed 35 PPG in their three losses. The defense also just gave up 42 points and 427 total yards at home to rival New Mexico last week. Diving deeper, the Aggies' defense ranks 102nd nationally in success rate and 131st in adjusted expected points added (EPA)/play.
Win or lose, Western Kentucky should score plenty of points in this matchup. In last year's meeting with New Mexico State, the Hilltoppers put up 35 points and 429 total yards of offense. Tisdale threw for 301 yards and four scores against the shaky pass defense. Take the over on Western Kentucky's team total.
Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 27.5 Points (-120)
North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
This projects to be an entertaining, high-scoring matchup between American Athletic Conference opponents. Tulsa (3-1) is a slight 1.5-point home favorite over North Texas (2-2), with a 57.5-point game total. The over is the play here, based on multiple trends and stats.
The Mean Green style of play welcomes offensive shootouts. North Texas deploys a fast-paced, pass-first offense that pushes the tempo and spreads out opposing defenses. The attack averages 39.5 points per game while ranking ninth nationally in total offense. They also rank 27th in the country in offensive EPA/play and 36th in offensive success rate.
North Texas loaded up in the transfer portal with key additions from power-conference programs. Quarterback Tayven Jackson brings veteran experience from his time at Tennessee, Indiana and UCF. Running backs Jahiem White (West Virginia) and Brendon Haygood (Missouri) provide a 1-2-punch in the running game. Plus, the Mean Green have multiple talented receivers for Jackson to sling it around to.
Meanwhile, the North Texas defense leaves much to be desired. The unit ranks 124th nationally in adjusted EPA/play and 109th in success rate. The Mean Green recently allowed 49 points and 605 total yards in a road loss at Texas State. That bodes well for Tulsa to move the ball and put up its fair share of points.
The Golden Hurricane just suffered a 34-6 drubbing at Arkansas. However, a bounceback offensive effort should be coming. Starting quarterback Baylor Hayes is trending toward a return from a two-game absence. He'll certainly improve Tulsa's passing game. The rushing attack, though, can anchor the offense as it ranks 32nd in EPA/rush attempt this season.
Pick: Over 57.5 Points (-105)
