Tonight’s five-game college football slate includes a couple of interconference matchups, along with a few lopsided games based on the current point spread. No. 22 Indiana is the only ranked team playing on Friday, hosting the Indiana State Sycamores as a -46.5 point favorite.
I’ve got three best bets to tail, each worth one-unit, leading up to tonight’s opening kickoffs. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for more betting analysis and free picks each week of the 2025 college football season.
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College Football Week 3 – Friday Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Colorado vs. Houston
We’ll start with a Big 12 matchup between the Colorado Buffaloes and Houston Cougars. This game will be hosted by the Cougars at TDECU Stadium in prime-time on ESPN. Houston is laying -4.5 on the point spread, while the point total is set to 44.5.
Line movement has gone in the direction of Houston on the point spread, opening at -3 and hitting -6.5 before settling back to its current line at -4.5. The point total has moved down from 45.5. to 44.5.
The Buffaloes are likely to start Ryan Staub under center tonight following their first win of the season against Delaware in Week 2. Kaidon Salter was a transfer from Liberty this offseason but head coach Deion Sanders plugged Staub into the lineup and he delivered, finishing 7-10 for 158 yards and two touchdowns.
Houston’s quarterback, Sam Weigman, transferred from Texas A&M. Weigman has a 65 percent completion rate for 347 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He’s also 17-59-1 as a ball carrier for the Cougars.
Colorado’s backfield has not found its rhythm yet. Through two games, Salter is the leader in rush attempts (21), while Micah Welch and Simeon price each have at least 14 carries and 78 rushing yards.
Houston’s defense is solid, holding their first two opponents to a 2.8 YPC average. The Cougars also haven’t surrendered a touchdown pass, winning 27-0 during a home opener against Stephen F. Austin and 35-9 at Rice in Week 2.
Staub’s story is fun but Weigman and the Cougars’ defense will likely prove to be too much to overcome. Houston is averaging 4.7 YPC, while Colorado has allowed 5.2 YPC.
Let’s bet on Houston as a home favorite and lay -4.5 with the Cougars on Friday night.
Pick: Houston -4.5 (-115)
Kansas State vs. Arizona
We’ve got a home underdog in tonight’s Big 12 matchup between two programs with the same Wildcats nickname. Arizona is currently +1.5 on the point spread and -102 moneyline to win outright. The point total is set to 54.5, indicating oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair in Tucson.
Quarterbacks Avery Johnson and Noah Fifita both have experience in their respective offenses. Johnson had a strong campaign in 2024, leading Kansas State to an 8-4 record in the regular season. Fifita lost top target, Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL, yet he’s looked sharp in the first two games of 2025.
This game will likely be decided by which team makes fewer mistakes. Johnson and the Wildcats are 1-2 because of turnovers, committing at least one in all three matchups. Kansas State barely beat FCS North Dakota, while losing at home to Army in Week 2.
Arizona’s defense has been stout, allowing zero passing touchdowns or rushing touchdowns against Hawaii and FCS program, Weber State. The Wildcats’ rushing attack is equally impressive, averaging 4.6 YPC, while Fifita dominated Weber State in Week 2, recording over 400 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air.
There’s nothing better than getting a home underdog with an undefeated record. Kansas State has looked flat and have yet to look impressive in any of their games played in 2025.
Bet on Fifita’s Wildcats to win outright against Kansas State at home tonight.
Pick: Arizona Moneyline (-102)
New Mexico vs. UCLA
Tonight’s late kickoff between New Mexico and UCLA will focus on Bruins’ quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, to deliver the program’s first win of the season after a disappointing 0-2 start. The Lobos enter this game with a 1-1 record, losing on the road to Michigan, 34-17, before beating non-major Idaho State 32-22 in Week 2.
Line movement has gone in favor of New Mexico, opening at -15.5 and peaking at -16.5, before settling back at its current -15.5 price. The point total has plummeted from 55.5 to 53.5.
Iamaleava is UCLA’s leading rusher in total carries, yards and touchdowns. It’s going to make it easy for the Lobos’ defense to prioritize him as a ball carrier. New Mexico got gashed by the Wolverines’ rushing attack but improved against Idaho State last week.
New Mexico QB Jack Layne has thrown three interceptions to only one touchdown. He’s got a 64 percent completion rate but the Lobos’ offense runs through RB Scottre Humphrey, averaging 6.2 YPC. TE Dorian Thomas is the primary target for Layne with 15-127-2 heading into tonight’s road tilt at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA’s defense is a liability. The Bruins have allowed 5.0 YPC and five rushing touchdowns, including an additional five passing touchdowns for at least 200 yards in each loss.
New Mexico’s rushing attack should be effective enough to move the football into scoring position. Keeping Layne as a game manager will open up play-action pass opportunities he can convert.
-15.5 is a big spread for a team struggling on both sides of the line of scrimmage to cover. Let’s back the Mountain West team on the road and bet on New Mexico to cover +15.5 against UCLA tonight.
Pick: New Mexico +15.5 (-112)
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