Here's an early look at College Football Week 4 spreads, along with my projections. We'll run through major injuries that are affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." Spreads are from the perspective of the home team, i.e., a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (ie, bring that with you to your handicap)
College Football Week 4: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions
| Away |
Home |
ATL |
Spread |
Value |
ATT |
Total |
Value |
Day |
CST |
| West Virginia |
Virginia Tech |
0.3 |
3 |
-2.7 |
41.5 |
52.5 |
-11 |
Thursday |
6:30 PM |
| Coastal Carolina |
Georgia St. |
4.3 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
61.5 |
63.5 |
-2 |
Thursday |
6:30 PM |
| Virginia |
Syracuse |
-11.9 |
-8.5 |
-3.4 |
56.5 |
54.5 |
2 |
Friday |
6:00 PM |
| Nevada |
Air Force |
-21.6 |
-25 |
3.4 |
64 |
48.5 |
15.5 |
Friday |
7:00 PM |
| Boise St. |
UTEP |
19.4 |
15 |
4.4 |
44 |
45.5 |
-1.5 |
Friday |
8:00 PM |
| TCU |
SMU |
-1.1 |
1 |
-2.1 |
76 |
69.5 |
6.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Duke |
Kansas |
-7.1 |
-8 |
0.9 |
67.5 |
64.5 |
3 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Baylor |
Iowa St. |
1.8 |
1 |
0.8 |
50.5 |
44.5 |
6 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Central Michigan |
Penn St. |
-26.3 |
-25.5 |
-0.8 |
49 |
60.5 |
-11.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| South Florida |
Louisville |
-14.7 |
-14 |
-0.7 |
62 |
63.5 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Buffalo |
Eastern Michigan |
-6.3 |
-5.5 |
-0.8 |
65 |
60.5 |
4.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Kent St. |
Georgia |
-43.3 |
-44 |
0.7 |
62.5 |
59 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Maryland |
Michigan |
-15.9 |
-17 |
1.1 |
63.5 |
62.5 |
1 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Clemson |
Wake Forest |
9.6 |
7 |
2.6 |
68.5 |
55.5 |
13 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Missouri |
Auburn |
-9.4 |
-6.5 |
-2.9 |
62 |
52 |
10 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| Bowling Green |
Mississippi St. |
-33.2 |
-29 |
-4.2 |
59 |
56.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
11:00 AM |
| UCLA |
Colorado |
21.5 |
21 |
0.5 |
60 |
57.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Massachusetts |
Temple |
-9.4 |
-9.5 |
0.1 |
53.5 |
44.5 |
9 |
Saturday |
1:00 PM |
| Texas |
Texas Tech |
6.8 |
5 |
1.8 |
76.5 |
60 |
16.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Notre Dame |
North Carolina |
2.2 |
0 |
2.2 |
62 |
60 |
2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Minnesota |
Michigan St. |
-1.5 |
-1 |
-0.5 |
49 |
51 |
-2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Toledo |
San Diego St. |
2.6 |
2 |
0.6 |
45 |
47 |
-2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| James Madison |
Appalachian St. |
-9.5 |
-10 |
0.5 |
55.5 |
57.5 |
-2 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Middle Tennessee |
Miami (FL) |
-25.6 |
-26.5 |
0.9 |
63.5 |
52.5 |
11 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Florida International |
Western Kentucky |
-32.6 |
-26.5 |
-6.1 |
74.5 |
66.5 |
8 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| North Texas |
Memphis |
-13.1 |
-13.5 |
0.4 |
56 |
68.5 |
-12.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Florida |
Tennessee |
-10.3 |
-9.5 |
-0.8 |
72 |
62.5 |
9.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Indiana |
Cincinnati |
-19.8 |
-14 |
-5.8 |
48.5 |
54 |
-5.5 |
Saturday |
2:30 PM |
| Georgia Tech |
UCF |
-20.3 |
-17 |
-3.3 |
59 |
57.5 |
1.5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Oregon |
Washington St. |
8.8 |
6 |
2.8 |
58 |
54.5 |
3.5 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Tulsa |
Ole Miss |
-23.5 |
-19.5 |
-4.0 |
56 |
62 |
-6 |
Saturday |
3:00 PM |
| Arizona |
California |
-4.9 |
-4.5 |
-0.4 |
40 |
48.5 |
-8.5 |
Saturday |
4:30 PM |
| Ball St. |
Georgia Southern |
-10.9 |
-9.5 |
-1.4 |
41.5 |
62 |
-20.5 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Akron |
Liberty |
-29.6 |
-24.5 |
-5.1 |
57.5 |
59 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Navy |
East Carolina |
-19.2 |
-18.5 |
-0.7 |
54.5 |
48 |
6.5 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Arkansas St. |
Old Dominion |
-5.1 |
-3.5 |
-1.6 |
59 |
56.5 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Rice |
Houston |
-19.7 |
-17.5 |
-2.2 |
58.5 |
57.5 |
1 |
Saturday |
5:00 PM |
| Iowa |
Rutgers |
7.4 |
7.5 |
-0.1 |
37.5 |
35.5 |
2 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Arkansas |
Texas A&M |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
0.3 |
52 |
48 |
4 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Northern Illinois |
Kentucky |
-26.0 |
-24.5 |
-1.5 |
58.5 |
53 |
5.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Southern Miss |
Tulane |
-14.0 |
-13.5 |
-0.5 |
45 |
50 |
-5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Marshall |
Troy |
4.8 |
3.5 |
1.3 |
51 |
52.5 |
-1.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Louisiana Tech |
South Alabama |
-9.1 |
-13 |
3.9 |
53 |
59.5 |
-6.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| UNLV |
Utah St. |
3.0 |
1 |
2.0 |
55.5 |
62 |
-6.5 |
Saturday |
6:00 PM |
| Vanderbilt |
Alabama |
-38.8 |
-37.5 |
-1.3 |
65.5 |
59 |
6.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Charlotte |
South Carolina |
-22.2 |
-23 |
0.8 |
56.5 |
65 |
-8.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| New Mexico |
LSU |
-32.3 |
-31 |
-1.3 |
39.5 |
47 |
-7.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Florida Atlantic |
Purdue |
-17.9 |
-18 |
0.1 |
46 |
61.5 |
-15.5 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Connecticut |
North Carolina St. |
-40.9 |
-38 |
-2.9 |
54.5 |
50.5 |
4 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Wisconsin |
Ohio St. |
-17.3 |
-17.5 |
0.2 |
67 |
56 |
11 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Miami (OH) |
Northwestern |
-5.7 |
-6.5 |
0.8 |
48 |
51 |
-3 |
Saturday |
6:30 PM |
| Kansas St. |
Oklahoma |
-16.1 |
-13 |
-3.1 |
54.5 |
52 |
2.5 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| Hawai’i |
New Mexico St. |
1.7 |
-2.5 |
4.2 |
71 |
55 |
16 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| Boston College |
Florida St. |
-15.6 |
-15.5 |
-0.1 |
46.5 |
48.5 |
-2 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| Louisiana |
Louisiana-Monroe |
17.5 |
12 |
5.5 |
51.5 |
52.5 |
-1 |
Saturday |
7:00 PM |
| USC |
Oregon St. |
8.0 |
7 |
1.0 |
67.5 |
68 |
-0.5 |
Saturday |
8:30 PM |
| Wyoming |
Brigham Young |
-21.4 |
-23.5 |
2.1 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
0 |
Saturday |
9:15 PM |
| Western Michigan |
San Jose St. |
-6.9 |
-3 |
-3.9 |
51 |
51 |
0 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| Utah |
Arizona St. |
11.2 |
15.5 |
-4.3 |
53 |
52 |
1 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
| Stanford |
Washington |
-15.3 |
-12.5 |
-2.8 |
44.5 |
61.5 |
-17 |
Saturday |
9:30 PM |
Coaching News
Utah (-15.5) at Arizona State
ATL: Utah -11.2
Arizona State fired HC Herm Edwards on Sunday following Saturday's 30-21 home loss to Eastern Michigan. That was ASU's first loss to a non-P5 opponent at home since 2008. The Sun Devils started 1-2, beating an FCS team and losing to Oklahoma State.
Edwards went 26-20 overall and 17-14 in the P12 over four-plus years at ASU. An investigation into recruiting violations rocked his tenure. Five assistant coaches ended up getting fired or resigning, and a mass exodus of contributors fled the transfer portal over the offseason.
ASU is turning to RB coach Shaun Aguano as interim HC. A relative unknown, Aguano was an extremely successful high school coach in the area, going 88-19 at Chandler High School with four state titles prior to joining ASU's staff.
Nebraska (bye week)
The Cornhuskers fired DC Erik Chinander after Saturday's embarrassing 49-14 loss to Oklahoma. Nebraska gave up 580 yards. It would have been a lot more had the Sooners not started pulling starters at halftime and going conservative in the second half.
Nebraska fired former HC Scott Frost last Sunday, naming Mickey Joseph interim HC. Joseph appointed special teams coordinator Bill Busch as interim DC. Currently, the Cornhuskers don't have anybody to take over Busch's responsibilities with the special teams.
The Cornhuskers are a mess. They have a bye week to try to sort out the coaching staff before hosting Indiana a week from Saturday.
Notable Injuries
Florida State (-15.5) vs. Boston College
ATL: FSU -15.6
On Friday night, FSU upset Louisville 35-31 on the road to improve to 3-0. In lieu of circumstances, it was a triumphant win. Certainly a costly one.
FSU QB Jordan Travis and DE Jared Verse both exited in the second quarter with lower-body injuries. After halftime, FSU also lost OL Robert Scott and DT Malcolm Ray to injuries. FSU was already playing without DT Fabien Lovett, who didn't travel to Louisville after suffering a leg injury against LSU.
FSU QB2 Tate Rodemaker started 1-for-3 with an INT in the second quarter after taking over for Travis. But after halftime, Rodemaker looked like a different quarterback, completing 6-of-10 for 109 yards with a pair of touchdowns to WR Johnny Wilson. Wilson, the 6-foot-7 transfer from Arizona State, had a breakout game with 149 yards receiving and the two TD.
Miami (FL) (-26.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
ATL: Miami -25.6
Miami was without WR1 Xavier Restrepo in last week's 16-9 loss to Texas A&M. The Hurricanes have only said that Restrepo is out "indefinitely" with a foot injury.
USC (-7) at Oregon St.
ATL: USC -8.0
Oregon State has already announced that it’ll be without TE Luke Musgrave and RB Trey Lowe this weekend against USC due to injuries. Musgrave is one of the team's top receiving targets when active - he had 11 catches in one-plus games before going down. Lowe is a rotational back.
Brigham Young (-23.5) vs. Wyoming
ATL: BYU -21.4
Starting BYU WRs Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua both missed Saturday's 41-20 loss to Oregon. Per ESPN, the pair account for roughly 60% of BYU's receiving volume when healthy.
Romney hasn't played all year with an undisclosed injury. Nacua sprained his right ankle in BYU’s blowout win at South Florida. Nacua would appear to be closer to a return. While Romney didn't travel with the team to Oregon, Nacua did and dressed for warmups.
Reportedly, the staff knew that playing Nacua would increase the likelihood of re-injury, so they played it safe. It's possible they will do so again this weekend against a lower-tier opponent in Wyoming.
The Cougars desperately need Romney and Nacua healthy in October, when BYU plays Notre Dame and Arkansas.
Temple (-9.5) vs. Massachusetts
ATL: Temple -9.4
My line doesn't take into account Temple's injuries. They're substantial. In Saturday's 16-14 loss to Rutgers, the Owls were without at least seven key contributors.
That list included starting QB D’Wan Mathis, RB2-3 Darvon Hubbard and Jakari Norwood, starting RT Adam Klein, starting TE David Martin-Robinson, starting OLB Tra Thomas, and backup S DaeSean Winston. Somehow, Temple almost upset Rutgers as 18-point underdogs anyway.
A part of the reason for that is true freshman QB E.J. Warner is indisputably better than the recruiting bust Mathis. In 51 attempts, Warner is completing 64.7% of his attempts for 7.6 YPA and a 3/1 TD/INT ratio. Over 29 attempts, Mathis is completing 48.3% for 4.3 YPA and a 0/0 TD/INT ratio. Mathis' career completion percentage is 55.9%, with a 5.7 YPA and 7/7 TD/INT ratio.
Temple really needs to hitch its wagons to Warner, the son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner. But the Owls could badly use the return of their other injured contributors. Keep an eye on their status, along with any QB news to leak out, if you're interested in betting this game.
Baylor (-1) at Iowa State
ATL: Baylor -1.8
Baylor was without starting RB Taye McWilliams, starting WR Monaray Baldwin, and starting TE Blake Sims for Saturday’s 42-7 win over Texas State. All three are in concussion protocol.
Without McWilliams, RB Richard Reese, a true freshman, went ballistic for 156 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Baylor can feel good about its backfield depth when McWilliams returns.
To that point, HC Dave Aranda said after the game that the Bears are "hopeful" of having its trio of missing starters back for Iowa State. That'll depend on how each team responds to another week in the protocol.
Georgia (-44) vs. Kent State
ATL: UGA -43.3
Georgia star DT Jalen Carter, a top-10 NFL Draft prospect, was limited to 11 snaps against South Carolina with a “lingering ankle issue” he suffered in the opener against Oregon. HC Kirby Smart said the team hopes Carter is a full-go this week.
Georgia TE Arik Gilbert didn't make the trip with the team on Saturday to South Carolina. Gilbert, a decorated transfer from LSU, has yet to catch a pass through the first two games this season.
HC Kirby Smart has consistently alluded to Gilbert's lackluster showings in practice and a need to get him to focus. Dreams of Gilbert teaming with Brock Bowers to give Georgia two matchup-nightmare tight ends in the passing game may not come to fruition.
Georgia WR Adonai Mitchell also stayed back in Athens for the game. Mitchell suffered an ankle injury the previous Saturday against Samford.
UCLA (-21) at Colorado
ATL: UCLA -21.5
Colorado had very little chance of beating Minnesota last Saturday. The odds got even worse right before kickoff when the Buffaloes announced they'd be playing without their two best offensive skill players, RB Alex Fontenot and WR/PR Chase Penry.
Fontenot is dealing with a chest bruise, while Penry's absence was not explained. Colorado desperately needs both back with the Bruins coming to town.
Ole Miss (-19.5) vs. Tulsa
ATL: Mississippi -23.5
Mississippi WR Jaylon Robinson didn't play in Saturday’s game against Georgia Tech for undisclosed reasons. Nicknamed "Flash," Robinson is a quick 5-foot-9, 180-pound slot transfer from UCF who was expected to get peppered with targets this season. Instead, he has only three catches through three games.
Kentucky (-24.5) vs. Northern Illinois
ATL: UK -26.0
NIU QB Rocky Lombardi left Saturday's game against Vanderbilt with a knee injury in the second quarter and never returned. QB2 Ethan Hampton finished the game. The Huskies ended up coughing up a two-touchdown lead by allowing the Commodores to score 24 unanswered points in the second half.
Lombardi's status bears monitoring this week if you're interested in betting this game.
Michigan State (-1) vs. Minnesota
ATL: MSU -1.5
Minnesota WR Chris Autman-Bell will miss the rest of the 2022 season due to a lower-body injury he suffered in the second quarter of Saturday's win over Colorado. Gophers HC PJ Fleck confirmed Autman-Bell will undergo surgery in the coming days.
Fleck told the media that Minnesota intends to apply for a medical redshirt that would grant a seventh year of eligibility for Autman-Bell. It's unclear if Autman-Bell would return if it's granted. He's going to get a look from the NFL whenever he declares.
Michigan State has a few injuries of its own. Starters WR Jayden Reed and DT Jacob Slade did not travel to Saturday's loss at Washington. Reed suffered a cut on his back after sliding into a bench while being tackled near the sideline in the previous game against Akron. Slade's injury also occurred against Akron, but the coaching staff hasn't revealed what happened, nor the severity of it.
Marshall (-3.5) at Troy
ATL: Marshall -4.8
This past Saturday started off so promisingly for Marshall. Coming off the triumphant upset win over Notre Dame, the Herd announced that star RB Rasheen Ali had traveled with the team to Bowling Green.
But Ali, who took a leave of absence right before the season for undisclosed reasons, wasn't ultimately able to play, and Marshall ended up being upset by the Falcons.
To this point, Marshall has not placed a timeline on Ali's return. He returned to practice last week and is now traveling with the team, so you would have to assume that return would be imminent. Khalan Laborn will continue to carry the load until Ali's return.
South Carolina (-23) vs. Charlotte
ATL: SC -22.1
After Charlotte lost QB Chris Reynolds to an undisclosed injury in the opener, the wheels fell off the offense, and the 49ers lost by 30-or-more to FAU and Maryland and by 17 at home to FCS William & Mary.
Reynolds returned for Saturday’s meeting with Georgia State, and Charlotte immediately looked like its old self. Charlotte, a 20-point underdog, controlled much of the game and held on for a 42-41 over GSU in Atlanta.
With Reynolds back under center, you can erase the first three games from your mind and return to thinking about Charlotte closer to the 5-7 outfit they were last season.
Clemson (-7) at Wake Forest
ATL: Clemson -9.6
Clemson DT Bryan Bresee missed Saturday night’s win over Louisiana Tech to be with his family following the death of his younger sister, Ella Bresee, 15. Ella passed away last Thursday from brain cancer.
Tennessee (-9.5) vs. Florida
ATL: Tennessee -10.3
Tennessee WR1 Cedric Tillman and RB Jabari Small left in the first half of Saturday's 63-6 win over Akron. Tillman, who has 17 receptions for 246 yards and a touchdown through three games, suffered a lower-body injury. Small's injury was to his right arm.
HC Josh Heupel has not yet updated their statuses but did indicate after the game that because of the score and opponent, he wasn't going to push it with either player.
Tennessee also hopes to get CBs Warren Burrell and Dee Williams back for Florida. Burrell, a starter, missed the Akron game, potentially as a precautionary measure. Williams, a JUCO transfer, has not yet made his Vols debut.
If Tillman misses this Saturday, the Vols will lean heavily on WRs Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy. Small's injury opened the door on Saturday for youngsters Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson, both of whom looked good against the Zips.
On the Florida side, the Gators were without RT Michael Tarquin and LB Ventrell Miller in Saturday’s too-close-for-comfort win over USF. The defense has played well when Miller has been on the field over the past few seasons but drastically played down without him. His status is important to monitor for anyone considering a bet on the Gators.
UTSA vs. Southern
ATL: N/A
UTSA RB Trelon Smith didn’t play in Saturday's loss at Texas. He spent the game on the sidelines with a walking boot on his right foot. No update has been given on his status. Smith, an Arkansas transfer also dealt with a series of nagging injuries last fall.
A small, quick back, durability concerns appear to be a feature with Smith, not a bug. It's doubtful that the Roadrunners would rush him back for a game against Texas Southern if he remains less than 100 percent.
Ohio State (-17.5) vs. Wisconsin
ATL: OSU -17.3
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson exited with an undisclosed injury after playing only one offensive series in Saturday's win over Toledo. When he returned to the sidelines, he did so without his helmet and never re-entered the game.
HC Ryan Day said after the game that Henderson was yanked "out of an abundance of caution." Henderson tweeted cryptically on Sunday, "Be back soon..Great team win!"
If Henderson is sidelined on Saturday, Miyan Williams and Dallan Hayden will split backfield touches.
Pittsburgh vs. Rhode Island
ATL: N/A
Pittsburgh WR Jared Wayne exited Saturday's win over Western Michigan early with an undisclosed injury. After being evaluated in the locker room, he spent the rest of the game in street clothes on the sideline. Pitt has not yet updated Wayne's status.
Fresno State (bye)
QB Jake Haener was carted off the field early in the third quarter of Saturday's loss to USC after suffering a high ankle sprain. QB Logan Fife entered the game following Haener's injury. Bulldogs HC Jeff Tedford said after the game that Haener's injury isn't season-ending.
Eastern Michigan (-5.5) vs. Buffalo
ATL: EMU -6.3
EMU upset Arizona State on Saturday despite being without QB Taylor Powell for more than half the game. Powell suffered a shoulder injury in the first half and did not play after halftime.
Austin Smith replaced Powell. EMU HC Chris Creighton told reporters that he didn’t expect Powell to be out long.
Texas (-5) at Texas Tech
ATL: UT -6.8
Texas Tech LB Bryce Ramirez suffered a gruesome leg injury and was carted off the field in Saturday’s loss to North Carolina State. A former walk-on, Ramirez was starting his first career game. His season is likely over. He'll need to be replaced on multiple special teams units and creates a hole in the LB room.
The Longhorns will be playing another game without injured starting QB Quinn Ewers. Last week, with Hudson Card making the start, Texas fell down 17-7 to UTSA in the second quarter before closing the game on a 34-3 heater to beat UTSA 41-20. Card threw for a modest 161 yards but wasn't intercepted.
Lines of Interest
Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Virginia
ATL: Cuse -11.5
Syracuse continued to look good over the weekend, hanging in there for three-quarters of a chess match before outlasting Purdue in a wild fourth quarter.
The market is still not appreciating the degree to which Syracuse has leveled up. And it certainly isn't appreciating how far Virginia fell off over the offseason. The Cavs lost their coaching staff and entire offensive line, and new HC Tony Elliott hasn't yet figured out how to make his star QB and loaded WR corps viable behind a shoddy front.
This line should be in the double digits and will be by kickoff.
New Mexico State (-2.5) vs. Hawai’i
ATL: Hawaii -1.7
This is the worst FBS game on the schedule so far this season. So, of course, we're betting it.
My system says the wrong team is favored. Both of these winless teams have looked awful this season, but this could be a golden opportunity for new Hawaii HC Timmy Chang to get his first win. New Mexico State's offense is you-have-to-see-it-to-believe-it bad.
Auburn (-6.5) vs. Missouri
ATL: Auburn -9.4
The Bryan Harsin era isn't going to last much longer at Auburn. He was a poor fit from the start, and the boosters hate him. But the guy can coach, and he has much more talent than the opponent coming to town on Saturday.
This line is short due to perception, not reality. Auburn's schedule gets gnarly after this weekend, making this close to a must-win get-right game for the Tigers. I expect them to win by double-digits.
Western Kentucky (-26.5) vs. Florida International
ATL: WKU -32.6
WKU had Indiana dead-to-rights on Saturday and watched the Hoosiers drive the length of the field in three minutes, score a TD and make the two-point conversion to force OT, and win it in the extra frame.
Perhaps that's why we're getting line value on the Hilltoppers for this Saturday's game against FIU, the team ranked dead-last in the FBS in my power rankings. WKU should let off some steam by blowing out the overmatched Panthers.
Cincinnati (-14) vs. Indiana
ATL: Cincy -19.8
Speaking of Indiana... my gosh is this team lucky to be 3-0! The Hoosiers finished Saturday's OT win over WKU with a 10.7% postgame win expectancy. The postgame adjusted scoring margin was WKU -10.7.
This came after Indiana's improbable come-from-behind win against Illinois in the opener. Heck, Indiana had to come from behind in the second half to overcome a 10-0 halftime lead to mediocre FCS outfit Idaho.
Indiana is 3-0, but with only 1.4 second-order wins. IU's +1.6 second-order wins easily lead the country, 0.7 above tied-for-second Coastal Carolina and NC State.
Incredibly, the fluky record convinced Vegas to open this number in the single digits. Sharps mercilessly hammered Cincy on Sunday after the line opened to push this number to Bearcats -14. My numbers still say that's woefully short.
Cincinnati is a play up to -20, and a strong play through -16.5.
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