At the beginning of each new NFL week, I'll be bringing forward a few trends for each game, varying from head coaches and QBs to recent performances in similar spots and historical data. Following the trends, I will have a short blurb on my best bet for that game and why I would make that bet - some of which will be backed by the trends, while others may not. While each game has their own specific trends, the overarching trend for Week 2 is simple - don't overreact to the results of Week 1. Each week in the NFL represents one data point per team, which will hardly be representative of that team's success (or lack thereof) for the entirety of the season. In line with that sentiment, teams that lost in Week 1 by 10+ points are 39-22-1 in Week 2, via ActionLabs. Here’s my full article. And below you can take a look at Commanders vs. Broncos.
Early NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Trends: Commanders vs. Broncos
Commanders @ Broncos - Sunday, September 17 - 4:25 p.m. EST
- Current Consensus Lines - DEN -3.5; O/U 39
Commanders trends:
- Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
- Previous 20 games on the road: 11-8-1 to the Under
Broncos trends:
- Previous 20 games as a favorite: 14-6 to the Under
- Previous 20 home games: 12-8 to the Under
Best bet - Under 39 (-114) – The trends speak for themselves on this one, with two very good defenses up against two offenses that are well below league average.
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points, and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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