Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books, and there were many unsurprising takeaways from this week as we enter Week 5. The Dallas Cowboys defense remains atrocious, as does the entire NFC East division despite Philadelphia's upset of San Francisco. The Bills, Seahawks, Packers, and Chiefs continued to roll and are 4-0, while Bill O'Brien was the first head coach fired this season. Week 5 is the first week of official bye weeks with the Lions and Packers having scheduled off days, while the league continues to monitor COVID testing in Tennessee and how it may affect this week's game. Here is a look at the early NFL Week 5 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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Thursday, October 8th – 8:20 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Last week, the lookahead line saw the Buccaneers favored by just three points. However, after Tom Brady torched the Chargers defense for 369 yards and five touchdowns, it is easy to see why the line escalated so much. In addition, new Bears starting quarterback Nick Foles had difficulty moving the ball against the Colts defense last week. Both teams were in a similar position from an over/under standpoint as they each had games kick off with totals around 43 points. Tampa Bay's game crushed the total with 69 combined points while Chicago's under with a combined 30 points was never in doubt. I still expect this total to tick up slightly given how good Tom Brady looked last week, in addition to Tampa Bay's defense not being able to contain rookie Justin Herbert.
Sunday, October 11th- 1:00 PM EST
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
O/U 51
Predicted Movement: The Falcons three best wide receivers (Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russel Gage) were all cleared to play Monday night against the Packers, so it is no surprise to see this total open so high once again. However, Carolina is starting to earn the respect of many after two back-to-back impressive wins against the Chargers and Cardinals. Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is a cover machine, going 18-4 ATS in his career as an underdog. This has all the makings of a "pros vs. joes" game where the sharps will be on the underdogs while the betting public will back the "sexier" team in the Falcons. In addition, keep an eye on the status of Julio Jones as he did not play at all in the second half on Monday night. If he is ruled out early in the week, the total should come down some.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (OFF)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: No line has been set on this game yet, as further COVID testing is necessary in the wake of the Titans outbreak from last week. According to multiple sources, no new positive tests surfaced out of Tennessee on Monday. However, this week's game against Buffalo remains in jeopardy.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The Las Vegas Raiders came crashing down to earth after a big upset win over the Saints in Week 2. The two best teams from the AFC East (Patriots and Bills) beat up the Raiders in back-to-back weeks, and things do not get any easier with having to travel to Arrowhead Stadium. Given that the Raiders have allowed at least 30 points in three of their four games, there will not be much optimism that they will be able to stop the high-powered Chiefs attack. Kansas City does have the disadvantage of playing on a short week, but the Raiders lost their two games against the Chiefs last year by an average of 24.5 PPG. Thus, the line and total should increase as the week goes on.
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New York Jets
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: Arizona has now endured back-to-back disappointing losses to the Lions and Panthers after they had aspirations of starting 5-0 once they won their first two games. However, the Jets' whole season has been a disappointment as they have looked like the most dysfunctional team in the league at 0-4. The Jets do have the benefit of an extra three days rest, but there is also a question of how hard they will play for head coach Adam Gase. The line with the most flexibility is the over/under as the Jets have not given any indication they can stop anyone on defense. Their points allowed has gone up each week, and this could be the week Arizona running back Kenyan Drake improves upon his modest 3.8 YPC. Look for this over/under to tick up slightly namely because of New York's defensive deficiencies.
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
O/U 45
Predicted Movement: It was not supposed to end up this way, but the Steelers enter this game on somewhat of a bye week considering their game against the Titans was postponed due to positive COVID tests. Meanwhile, the 1-2-1 Eagles are suddenly in first place in the NFC East after a surprising upset of the 49ers. Bettors are not likely to go too crazy backing the Eagles considering how beat up the 49ers roster is. However, one area I look for sharps to weigh in is on the under now that the Eagles offensive line is in shambles. The Eagles allowed three sacks and ten quarterback hits to a decimated 49ers front, so Pittsburgh's front four should have a field day in this one. Look for the total to tick down some before kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: The Rams and the Football Team were both involved in huge spreads last week, though neither of them covered. Los Angeles looked unmotivated in a sloppy 17-9 home win over the Giants while Washington could not cover as 13-point underdogs against the Ravens. Washington has now lost three straight games by at least 14 points, and I cannot see them justifying any sort of wave from the betting public that would cause this line to go down. If anything, head coach Sean McVay will use last week's lackluster performance to fire up his squad and have them come out with a more spirited effort. And in case bettors are worried about them traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 start, they should be reminded that the Rams were a bad pass interference call away from beating the Bills outright in Buffalo two weeks ago.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
O/U 52
Predicted Movement: The Baltimore Ravens are in a similar spot as last week, attempting to cover a nearly two-touchdown spread against an inferior opponent. However, this game is at home and against a division rival which should get their attention more than a road game against Washington did. For those that are moneyline bettors, Baltimore is 37-0 SU as a double-digit favorite in the regular season and are the only team in the league that is undefeated in that spot. This game should have enough public backing to move it towards the key number of 14, but I also look for the over to come up slightly considering that the Bengals offense under Joe Burrow has averaged 28.7 PPG over their last three games. Burrow has also thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: Now that the "first coach to get fired" talk has ended, it will be interesting to see how the Houston Texans respond. O'Brien was not only the general manager of the team, but he took over play-calling duties for last week's game against Minnesota. Houston managed just six first half points en route to a 31-23 loss against the previously winless Vikings. Associate head coach Romeo Crennel who has six years head coaching experience with the Browns and Chiefs will take over as interim head coach. While the Jaguars have lost their last three games by almost 10 PPG, they have played their divisional opponents surprisingly tough and even beat one of them outright thus far. Therefore, I look for this spread to stay under the key number of seven and maybe even go lower in Jacksonville's favor in the coming days.
Sunday, October 11th- 4:05 PM EST
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-8)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: There is so much uncertainty surrounding the 49ers entering next week's home matchup with the Dolphins. After a surprising loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, bettors will await word on whether or not quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be available after missing the last two games. Meanwhile, they seem to have suffered another devastating injury on the defensive side of the ball as they fear they have lost Ziggy Ansah for the year to a torn biceps. If Garoppolo is able to play, the line should see an immediate uptick but would otherwise remain between -7.5 and -8 as long as he is questionable.
Sunday, October 11th- 4:25 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: Though on paper it would appear the Browns scored the bigger win last week on the road against the Cowboys, oddsmakers still are giving the Colts a ton of respect as road favorites after their win in Chicago. Cleveland will face a much stiffer test in the Colts defense compared to Dallas's who they gashed for 508 total yards (307 of them on the ground). However, it is strength vs. strength as Indianapolis brings the top-ranked total defense (236.3 YPG allowed) to take on Cleveland. The Colts have struggled to score when not facing poor defenses as they did against the Vikings and Jets, so this over/under is likely the highest it will be all week.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: The most intriguing number in the Giants-Cowboys matchup is the over/under as bettors will be left to determine if the Giants offense can take advantage of a very generous Cowboys defense or not. The Giants enter this game ranking 31st in total offense and dead-last with 11.8 PPG. They will face a Cowboys team that ranks 30th in total defense and are last with 36.5 PPG allowed. My guess is this over/under will come down despite Dallas's defensive woes as the familiarity with Jason Garrett on New York's sideline will help keep scoring down, while the betting public does not believe in the Giants offense even against Dallas's leaky defense.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (OFF)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: As of this writing, the Broncos-Patriots line is off the board considering New England plays on Monday night and the status of Cam Newton's availability for next week is unknown.
Sunday, October 11th- 8:20 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
O/U 57.5
Predicted Movement: Of all the spreads on the Week 5 slate, this is one that will almost assuredly move in the direction of the favorites. Russell Wilson has torched every defense he has faced through four weeks and now gets to face a Vikings 29th-ranked pass defense. Minnesota did end their losing ways against Houston this past week, but given the Texans struggles this year that victory likely won't carry the same weight that it would under normal circumstances. Look for the Seahawks spread to move off the key number to -7.5 or -8, and even though it will not seem like a big move it still should be recognized as one.
Monday, October 12th- 8:15 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
O/U 52
Predicted Movement: Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert turned in a tremendous performance in a loss against a Tampa Bay defense that had been playing well entering Week 4. Herbert threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns and helped the Chargers score 31 points against Tampa Bay. In a game where they will face the Saints in the dome, look for plenty of points to be scored, especially if wide receiver Michael Thomas is healthy enough to play for the first time in three weeks. This total should rise considerably in the coming days.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.