Many sportsbooks recorded their best Sunday of the season in Week 6, as outcomes like the Buccaneers covering against the Packers and Eagles covering against the Ravens were some of their biggest decisions. Bettors can learn something from this. It’s not a foolproof system, but more often than not, it’s profitable to be on the other side of one-sided betting action.
Here is a look at the early NFL Week 7 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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Thursday, October 22nd — 8:20 PM EST
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
O/U 44.5
Predicted Movement: Though the Giants won and the Eagles lost in Week 6, one could argue that the Eagles were more impressive in a loss than the Giants were in a win. Philadelphia outscored Baltimore 22-6 in the fourth quarter and were a two-point conversion away from taking the Ravens to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants needed a stop on a two-point conversion to hold off Washington for their first win. The Giants won despite gaining only 240 total yards. Bettors have been made aware that both Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz will miss this week’s game for the Eagles, so those injuries have already been incorporated into the betting line. The Giants defense has been an underrated unit all year, as they’ve allowed fewer than 20 points in three of their last five games. With how banged-up the Eagles’ offense is, the total should tick down slightly before kickoff.
Sunday, October 25th — 1:00 PM EST
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
O/U 56.5
Predicted Movement: It turns out that nothing is wrong with Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan — he just needs a healthy Julio Jones to open up the offense. The Falcons erupted for 40 points while Ryan threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns while leading Atlanta to their first win. This marks the second week in a row that a team earned their first win after firing their head coach, as the Texans accomplished the same feat a week prior. The Lions are also coming off a win, albeit over the lowly Jaguars. Both of Detroit’s wins have come on the road while Atlanta is winless at home, so this number has a better chance of moving off the key number toward the Lions than it does of going higher.
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 51
Predicted Movement: I recognize that this is a situation where we have division rivals with a road favorite, but this line still feels awfully low. The Browns were dismantled by the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, but that is no different than what has happened any of the last 17 years. Before last week, the Browns were considered an upstart contender at 4-1. It’s unlikely that the majority of the betting public would be off them now after one bad performance. The Bengals have played everyone but the Ravens tough this year, so they won’t be a pushover. Look for this to set up as a “pros vs. joes” game with the public on the Browns and the sharps on the Bengals. Ultimately, there will be too much Browns money for this line not to tick up some.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
O/U 52.5
Predicted Movement: The Steelers and Titans’ Week 7 matchup will feature two of the last three unbeaten teams in the league. While the Titans have been averaging more than 30 points per game since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback, they have not often seen a defense as stifling as the Steelers’ unit. Losing linebacker Devin Bush to a torn ACL will hurt, but this defense is built to stop running back Derrick Henry more than the average defense can. Look for this over/under to move closer to 50 by kickoff.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
O/U 51
Predicted Movement: The Saints will be coming off a bye. In contrast, the Panthers fell to 3-3 after a loss to Chicago. The Panthers may be getting All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey from injury in this one, so that could have a late impact on this line. Given that three of Carolina’s last four games have not totaled 40 points, sharps are likely to pound this under between divisional opponents. Thus, the 51.5 point total is likely the highest it will be all week.
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at New York Jets
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The Bills utilized a very conservative gameplan in their Monday night loss to the Chiefs, but a lot of that had to do with the opponent and the weather conditions. This is one of the rematches of the year, and the Bills beat the Jets 27-17 in Week 1. However, that game should not have been that close, as Buffalo hurt themselves with turnovers deep in New York territory. In addition, the Jets seem to be playing with less effort and urgency with each passing week. This number should tick up closer to -12 or -12.5 as the Bills will be desperate for a win after two consecutive losses.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The Cowboys figured to be in trouble once quarterback Dak Prescott was lost for the season. Now their offensive line is decimated and running back Ezekiel Elliott has a major fumbling problem. Given that this is a divisional game and it’s usually tightly contested, look for this line to move in Washington’s favor down to the key number of three, especially since the Cowboys are coming off a short week.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans
O/U 55.5
Predicted Movement: To say that the Packers were humbled by the Buccaneers in Tampa last week would be an understatement. Aaron Rodgers turned in one of the worst games of his career, and he completed less than 46% of his passes, threw two picks, and posted a quarterback rating of 35.4. Meanwhile, the Texans were one defensive stop away from knocking the Titans from the ranks of the unbeatens, and they have now played solid football for two weeks in a row under interim coach Romeo Crennel. This is a rare situation where the sharps are likely to be on the favorite, as they tend to pounce on lines that they feel are an overreaction from one bad week. This is still a matchup of a 4-1 vs. a 1-5 team, so the Packers should go off as more than field goal favorites by kickoff.
Sunday, October 25th — 4:05 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The Arizona Cardinals have momentarily righted the ship with two straight wins after they suffered a mini two-game losing streak. However, they are at a severe scheduling disadvantage, as they’re coming off a short week while the Seahawks had the benefit of a bye. The Cardinals may have played well on national television against the Cowboys, but they are still facing the last remaining unbeaten team in the conference. If this line moves, it will likely go in Seattle’s favor for all those reasons.
Sunday, October 25th – 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes had one of his worst statistical games from a yardage and touchdown standpoint, and the Chiefs still won and covered easily against a Buffalo Bills team that is a frontrunner to win their division. Bettors will be warier of laying a big number with the Chiefs against a divisional opponent, as the Chiefs lost outright at home to the Raiders in their last divisional game. While the Broncos are coming off a big win at New England, their offense scored just 18 points on six field goals. That won;t cut it against the high-powered Chiefs offense, so this line should still get to the key number of ten by kickoff.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-3)
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: Patriots fans are getting used to a lot of new things in 2020. Not only is Tom Brady no longer under center, but New England is under .500 for the first time since 2002. At 2-3 after a loss to the Broncos, they snapped an NFL record 225 straight games without being under .500 in October or later. Since San Francisco earned an impressive divisional win on Sunday night against the Rams, this line has a great chance to move off the key number of three and in their favor before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
O/U 49.5
Predicted Movement: The days of the Jaguars upsetting the Colts in Week 1 seem like a distant memory, as they have lost their last five games by 12.6 PPG. Now they face a Chargers team off a bye and that is led by a rookie quarterback who is gaining confidence each week. Though Los Angeles has lost four in a row themselves, those losses were all by one possession to teams with .500 or better records. Justin Herbert has thrown for at least 300 yards or three touchdowns in all four of his starts, so this line should only move in the Chargers’ favor if it moves at all.
Sunday, October 25th — 8:20 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 53.5
Predicted Movement: The Buccaneers silenced all doubters off a bad loss at Chicago with an emphatic 38-10 drubbing of the Packers. Sure, the Raiders are off a bye and their last game was a very impressive win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. But public bettors are more likely to have a short memory and will rush to the betting windows to back Tom Brady and the Buccaneers after they knocked Green Bay from the ranks of the unbeatens. This line should have no trouble hitting the key number of three before kickoff.
Monday, October 26th — 8:15 PM EST
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: At first glance, this number looks high since the Rams are coming off a disappointing divisional loss against a banged-up 49ers team, while the Bears are riding high at 5-1. Chicago should once again attract the majority of bets from the betting public, but sharps would scoop up the Rams should this line ever move down further. The Bears were fortunate to come away with a 23-16 win against the Panthers, especially since Carolina settled for two field goals deep in Chicago territory and also turned the ball over three times. In addition, Chicago has still yet to earn the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers, considering their five wins are against teams that are a combined 11-18. While Los Angeles hasn’t beaten a team outside the NFC East, they are 2-0 at home and have won five of their last six home games dating back to last year. Also, neither team has had a game total of more than 40 points in any of their last three games, so this total should come down some as well.
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