Many sportsbooks reportedly took beatings on Sunday, as popular teams like the Packers, Buccaneers and Chiefs all covered. As a result, if you’re typically a contrarian bettor, this wasn’t a good week for you. One thing we know for certain is that oddsmakers will adjust, as their losing weeks are few and far between.
Here is a look at the early NFL Week 8 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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Thursday, October 29th — 8:20 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
O/U 49
Predicted Movement: The Falcons seem to find new ways to lose games every week. Last week, a mental lapse by running back Todd Gurley cost Atlanta the game. His late-game touchdown put Atlanta up six by points, but there was just enough time for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to throw a game-winning touchdown as time expired. This is a rematch of a game played in Week 5 that the Panthers won 23-16 in Atlanta. Julio Jones did not play in that game, however, and bettors will likely keep that in mind instead of just assuming Carolina is on the right side again. However, if Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is cleared to play on Thursday night, there should be enough support for the Panthers to move this to the key number of three or beyond.
Sunday, November 1st — 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U 51
Predicted Movement: The Indianapolis Colts are off a bye and head to Detroit as road favorites. Interestingly, the Lions are 3-3 SU, but all of their wins have come on the road. The Colts have won four of their last five games after a Week 1 loss to Jacksonville, but just one of those wins came against a winning team. While these teams share two common opponents (Jaguars, Bears), there are split results between. At first glance, this total seems a tad high, considering that the Colts enter with the second-ranked total defense and fourth-ranked scoring defense. The fact that the Lions could only muster 23 points (seven of them on their game-winning drive) against the poor Falcons defense suggests that this total should come down over time.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: The Browns are likely favored by almost a field goal as a reaction to the Raiders getting blown out by the Buccaneers last week. Las Vegas is a difficult team to figure out, as they have lost three of their last four games, but their lone win in that span is at Kansas City. This line already has the fact that Odell Beckham Jr. has been lost for the year to a torn ACL built in. His injury did not hurt their offense against the Bengals, as Cleveland scored 37 points, but they may be in for an adjustment period without their top wideout. The Browns have just one victory over a team with a winning record this year, so look for the majority of the money to come in on the Raiders and to force oddsmakers to move this line slightly in the Raiders' favor.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: This game features the long-awaited debut of Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Rams do not have much game tape of Tagovailoa to study, and that could help him succeed in his debut. However, the betting public is not likely to see it that way after Los Angeles’s dominant 24-10 win over the Bears on Monday night. Sharps are likely to play the Dolphins since they have a tremendous scheduling advantage off their bye while the Rams are off a short week. However, there should be enough steam to move this to -4 at least. The total is off since Los Angeles played last night, but look for an opening total somewhere in the 45-46 point range.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)
O/U 55.5
Predicted Movement: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers silenced critics who doubted them after a blowout loss to the Buccaneers with a big 35-20 win on the road at the Texans. They face a Vikings team off a bye that may still be without running back Dalvin Cook. This is a rematch of a Week 1 game that the Packers won 43-34 in Minnesota. Given how non-competitive that game was for the most part, the Packers should get enough betting steam to push their line past the key number of seven, especially if Cook is ruled out for this contest.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4)
O/U 44
Predicted Movement: Both the Bills and Patriots did not play well last week, but the Bills at least walked away with a win. The narrative surrounding Buffalo would be much different if they were able to cash in any of their five red-zone trips against the Jets for a touchdown. Instead, they had to hold on for an 18-10 win over their 0-7 opponents in a game that wasn’t decided until the last possession. Meanwhile, the Patriots benched Cam Newton in the second half of a 33-6 blowout loss to the 49ers. They totaled just 241 yards and haven’t topped 12 points in the last three weeks. The Bills can take a stranglehold of the AFC East division race with a win that would put them 3.5 games ahead of the Patriots. Look for bettors to support the Bills and to give Buffalo a pass that they were potentially looking past the Jets last week and ahead to this game. The spread is not likely to ever get higher than five points, but the already low total may tick down slightly lower since Josh Allen hasn’t played well for three consecutive weeks.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-20.5)
O/U 49
Predicted Movement: This spread between the Jets and the Chiefs is a full touchdown higher than this season's previous high. And yet, there will be plenty of bettors who will rush to the betting windows and lay the points against the hapless Jets. It’s not likely to be too heavily bet of a game due to how much we don’t know going in. If the Chiefs get up big early, how quickly do they take Patrick Mahomes out? Will the Chiefs look as uninspired to play an 0-7 team as the Bills looked last week? Regardless, the line most likely to move is the total, as Kansas City is easily capable of putting up 40-plus points themselves. Look for this total to be bet into the 50s, as many bettors may expect the Jets to score some garbage-time points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
O/U 47
Predicted Movement: It is a sign of ultimate respect for the Ravens that they are laying four points at home to the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL. Perhaps the Steelers will feel the effects of a second consecutive road game this week. Historically, games between the Ravens and Steelers are always tight. In addition, not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they are also a league-best 5-1 ATS. While the Ravens are also a profitable 3-2-1 ATS, the Steelers should warrant a lot of respect from the betting public. Thus, this four-point spread is likely the highest it will be all week.
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: The Titans were a Stephen Gostkowski field goal away from going to overtime and possibly entering this game as the last remaining unbeaten team in the league. Had they defeated the Steelers last week, this spread would have likely opened closer to a touchdown, so perhaps there is some value on the Titans. However, sharp bettors are likely keen to Cincinnati's 5-2 ATS record, while the Titans are just 2-4 ATS. This has all the makings of a typical "pros vs. joes" game, where the betting public may push this line to -6 or -6.5 and the sharps quickly scoop up the inflated numbers.
Sunday, November 1st — 4:05 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos
O/U 45.5
Predicted Movement: Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert earned his first win as a professional in five tries after the Chargers beat the Jaguars 39-29 last week. There are sure to be bettors who will overreact to Denver's 43-16 blowout loss to the Chiefs last week. However, the game quickly got away from them after a pick-six and kickoff return for a touchdown allowed Kansas City to build a 24-9 halftime lead. The fact that Denver doesn’t have to travel for two weeks in a row is an advantage, while Los Angeles's lone road win was a three-point Week 1 win against the Bengals. This line has more of a chance to move towards Denver than it does of going the other way if it does indeed move off the key number of three.
Sunday, November 1st — 4:25 PM EST
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Chicago Bears
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: Had the Bears played better on Monday night against the Rams, this line would likely have opened closer to a pick’em. However, the Chicago offense managed only three points, and the more physical Rams pushed the Bears front off the line of scrimmage most of the night. If you’re backing New Orleans, you will want to keep an eye on the status of receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. If they again fail to play, the Saints do not have as many offensive weapons to be able to exploit this Bears defense on the road like they did at home against the Panthers. If one or both of them are cleared, this line would surely move off the key number of three in favor of New Orleans.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: The Seahawks are coming off a loss in what has to be the craziest and most exciting game of the season last week. And that is saying something, considering that Seattle seems to play crazy games every week. The 49ers were left for dead three weeks ago after losing 43-17 at home to the Dolphins. They have won their last two games against the Rams and Patriots by a combined 17.5 PPG, and they are once again considered a serious playoff threat. While the 49ers defense has allowed just 11 PPG over the last two weeks, the Seahawks offense looks unstoppable and averages a league-best 33.8 PPG. There are not many bettors who have the confidence to back the under in a game Russell Wilson is playing in right now, so this total could rise enough to kickoff as the highest total of the week.
Sunday, November 1st — 8:20 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: Since the lookahead line had the Eagles as closer to three-point favorites, this line likely already has factored in that Dallas quarterback Andy Dalton is unlikely to play after suffering a concussion last week. It seems unlikely that the Cowboys can make a move for a veteran quarterback quickly enough to play Sunday, so they’ll head into this game with a tandem of Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert. As banged-up as the Eagles have been all year, it’s not crazy to think they are the healthier team heading into this matchup. If the Eagles continue to get good news on the injury front, especially if Miles Sanders or Alshon Jeffery were able to rejoin the team, this line could creep closer to double digits by kickoff.
Monday, November 2nd — 8:15 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at New York Giants
O/U 47
Predicted Movement: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are quickly developing into a top Super Bowl contender with each passing week. We all knew Tom Brady would rejuvenate a talented offense in ways that last year’s quarterback Jameis Winston could not. However, the biggest surprise surrounding Tampa Bay’s 5-2 start has been a third-ranked defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG. The New York Giants also have a scoring defense that ranks in the top half of the league, as their 24.9 PPG allowed ranks 14th in the league. The Buccaneers have a showdown against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football the week after this game, so don’t be surprised if the Giants don’t have Tampa Bay’s full attention in this one. As a result, the sharp play will be on the under, and it may cause the total to tick down some.
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