A week after sportsbooks claimed they had a poor week and that bettors got the best of them, the books laughed right back in Week 8. At William Hill, for example, the top three most heavily bet games went their way. The Packers, Titans, and Bills had the three biggest handles yet went a collective 0-3 ATS. Thus, if you took a “fade the public” or contrarian approach in Week 8 you likely made out OK. Overall just four favorites (Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Eagles) covered last week, while overs went 9-5 overall.
Here is a look at the early NFL Week 9 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (Odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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Thursday, November 5th — 8:20 PM EST
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: By now, the news that both Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle will each miss at least six weeks has already been factored into this line. Backup quarterback Nick Mullens has started ten games over the last three years for the 49ers and has a 4-6 record in those starts. However, this line will not balloon in Green Bay’s favor too much as bettors remember how the 49ers dismantled the Packers in last year’s NFC Championship game behind a bruising and physical running game. Had the Packers beaten the Vikings last week, this line would likely escalate. However, sharps will likely back the 49ers as they have the personnel to use the same formula as Minnesota used to beat them with Dalvin Cook. Look for the spread to top out at -4 or -4.5 if it does move, while the total should be listed somewhere around 50 or 51.
Sunday, November 8th — 1:00 PM EST
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
O/U 50
Predicted Movement: The Falcons have the benefit of a few extra days rest having last played on Thursday while the Broncos are off an exhilarating come-from-behind win over the Chargers. At first glance, the total seems most likely to fluctuate as Denver’s 27th-ranked scoring offense is a little misleading given quarterback Drew Lock missed two games. Bettors are likely to have a short memory and see Denver’s last game have 61 combined points. Though Atlanta’s game was not nearly as high scoring, it was played in awful weather conditions. Since this game will be played in a dome, I see the total rising before kickoff.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: At this point, I do not see how any bettor can confidently back the under in a game in which the Seahawks are playing. Not only is Russell Wilson averaging 344.4 YPG and almost four touchdowns per game, but Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-worst 460.9 YPG. The Bills finally found a running game in their win over New England, as they ran for 190 yards on 38 carries, With the Bills not possessing the vaunted defense that Bills fans are accustomed to under head coach Sean McDermott, even this lofty 54-point total should be on the rise in the coming days.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-6)
O/U 46.5
Predicted Movement: Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses, though only one of those losses was expected. The Titans shockingly were non-competitive in a 31-20 defeat to the previously 1-5-1 Bengals. Meanwhile, the Bears showed a lot of fight against New Orleans before ultimately losing in overtime. Each week bettors seem to have less and less faith in the Bears, and rightfully so as they are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. However, Tennessee has lost two games themselves and neither team has beaten more than one winning team yet this year. Thus, this feels like a lot of points and could be a week where a public team like the Bears actually gets support from the betting public. This line will more likely move to -5 than it would move to -7.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 45
Predicted Movement: After a four-turnover performance against the Steelers, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are suddenly looked at as flawed. They are still being given the benefit of the doubt as road favorites despite both them and the Colts entering this game with 5-2 records. However, Baltimore’s two losses are to the two best teams in the AFC (Chiefs, Steelers) while the Colts have lost to the Jaguars and Browns. Running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton are banged up all of a sudden, and the Colts do not appear to have the weapons to hang with Baltimore’s usually high-powered offense. If bettors believe the Ravens can turn the page quickly and not feel a hangover after a tough loss to Pittsburgh, this line should have enough steam to move off the key number of three to 3.5 or higher.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
O/U 52.5
Predicted Movement: This game should mark the return of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey who has missed the last six games for the Panthers. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense has been humming recently as they have averaged 39 PPG over their last two games. This line has already come down from -12 where it was earlier on Monday, so sharps appear to have already backed the underdogs. Thus, the likely movement going forward is a higher total especially when it is officially announced that McCaffrey is playing.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
O/U 53
Predicted Movement: This game has all the makings of a “pros vs. joes” line. The Vikings are off a huge win at Green Bay while the Lions just got drubbed by 21 points at home against the Colts. Vikings running back Dalvin Cook just ran wild and now gets to face Detroit’s 23rd-ranked rush defense. In addition, the Lions will be without wide receiver Kenny Golladay who suffered a hip injury last week and may be headed to injured reserve. All that, and the spread is only Vikings -3.5? This will assuredly be one of the most lopsidedly bet games, with the books rooting for the Lions to cover or win outright.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: Washington gets a huge scheduling advantage in this one coming off a bye while the Giants are off a short week having played on Monday night. However, recency bias may have bettors as believers in the Giants who were just a two-point conversion away from taking the Buccaneers to overtime. If not for ill-timed turnovers by Daniel Jones, it could be argued New York outplayed Tampa Bay. Bettors will also point back to a 20-19 win over Washington a week ago, and argue that the Giants have been impressive since despite losing their two games by a combined three points. Thus, if you like the Giants you should pounce now since the line is unlikely to go any higher.
Houston Texans (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U 51.5
Predicted Movement: Already factored into this line is the fact that Jacksonville announced they will start rookie quarterback Jake Luton this week in place of the injured Gardner Minshew. The Texans beat the Jaguars 30-14 in Houston just four weeks ago, so that game along will likely be the bigger reason this game gets to the key number of -7 eventually. In addition, the total looks high despite both teams ranking 30th and 31st respectively in scoring defense. Look for the total to kick off closer to 50, especially given the news of Luton starting.
Sunday, November 8th — 4:05 PM EST
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
O/U 54
Predicted Movement: This game has the makings of a shootout as both teams average better than 25 PPG. Rookie Justin Herbert has been phenomenal since taking over as Chargers starting quarterback, and he has thrown at least three touchdown passes in his last four games. The Raiders played in a low-scoring 16-6 slugfest against the Browns last week, but that was because of poor weather conditions. Before that game, the lowest-scoring game the Raiders were a part of had 53 combined points. Look for this total to tick up considerably before kickoff.
Sunday, November 8th — 4:25 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (OFF)
O/U OFF
Predicted Movement: The NFL’s only undefeated team in the Pittsburgh Steelers will face off against the only NFL team who has yet to cover a spread in the Dallas Cowboys. The line and total are currently off the board as we await news on Dallas quarterback Andy Dalton who is still in the concussion protocol.
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: It was not the prettiest stat line, but Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa earned a win over the Rams in his first NFL start. Tagovailoa was aided by a special teams touchdown and a defense that forced four turnovers. Tagovailoa was not asked to do much in his debut, as he was 12-for-22 for 93 yards passing. However, the Arizona offense can put up points in a hurry so Tagovailoa will likely have to push the ball downfield more to keep pace. Both teams are 5-2 ATS this season, but the Cardinals off a bye are likely to get more of the betting action. This number should come up slightly in the coming days.
Sunday, November 8th — 8:20 PM EST
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted Movement: Perhaps there was a little bit of a lookahead factor with Tampa Bay last night as they needed a stop on a two-point conversion to turn away the New York Giants. Now they have a half-game lead on the Saints and will need a win to avoid losing both games to them on the year, which would be big in playoff tiebreaker scenarios. Both of these teams are likely to have big offensive weapons on hand as Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown are expected to play for their respective teams. In Week 1, these two teams combined for 57 points in a 34-23 Saints win. With a full complement of weapons on each side (save for Chris Godwin), this total is likely to rise slightly before kickoff.
Monday, November 9th — 8:15 PM EST
New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets
O/U 41
Predicted Movement: The Patriots are in the midst of their first four-game losing streak since 2002. Oddly enough, a quick glance at the 0-8 Jets schedule suggests that this game may be their best chance of earning a win all year. There is absolutely no confidence among bettors in either team, so it may not attract enough handle to ever move off the key number of seven. However, the 28th-ranked Jets scoring defense should be reason enough that this low total ticks up slightly, even if New England’s offense is only averaging 19.4 PPG.
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