After a relatively low-key first weekend of March Madness hoops, we are back in action tonight as the Sweet 16 kicks off. Despite no major Cinderellas becoming the tournament darlings and only one double-digit seed making it to the second weekend, we have a plethora of fantastic matchups to look forward to.
These No. 1 seeds are the best grouping of top seeds in the history of KenPom, but it's no guarantee they will all make it to San Antonio. We have four games tonight, and today is my favorite option of the two Sweet Sixteen days. I've had Maryland-Florida circled since the bracket dropped. Here are all of my top leans and best bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16. Below we dive into Florida vs. Maryland.
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NCAA Tournament Best Sweet 16 Bets: Florida vs. Maryland
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 4 Maryland Terrapins
Location: Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Line: Alabama -6.5 | Total: 157
Next up we have what I hope is the game of the tournament. Both teams have relied heavily on three-point shooting variance, with Florida hitting +8% and Maryland an even more impressive +12.5% on three-pointers compared to their season average during their recent run, per Will Warren. The game may hinge on the turnover battle, with Maryland’s defensive pressure potentially disrupting Florida’s offensive rhythm. Surprisingly, this is just the fourth team that Florida faces with a top-45 turnover rate all year. Their previous games resulted in high turnover rates and a relatively struggling offense for the powerhouse the Gators have become. Facing Tennessee thrice gives Florida preparation for an elite defense but they faced only one other top-10 defense all year. On the otherside, Florida boasts one of the best perimeter defenses in the league and should bring Maryland down to earth offensively. I do expect Maryland to keep this one tight but simply cannot fade Florida. Instead, I'm riding the under for what should be a defensive affair.
Bet: Under 157.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)
