Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich gets to take his team back to the stadium where he led the NFL’s greatest playoff comeback as the Buffalo Bills quarterback. The Colts should be thanking the Bills in pregame warmups, as their participation in the playoffs is only possible because of Buffalo’s win over Miami last week. The Bills are one of the league’s hottest teams entering the playoffs, but the Colts should not be overlooked after an 11-5 regular season. Will Indianapolis earn their fourth trip to the Divisional Round in the last eight seasons, or will Buffalo earn their first playoff win altogether since 1995?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Bills -7; O/U 52
- Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Start Time: 1:05 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: October 21, 2018 - Colts 37, Bills 5
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IND
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+6.5
-114
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o51
-108
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+245
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BUF
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-6.5
-106
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u51 -113
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-286
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Colts vs. Bills >>
Overview
Optimists will say the Indianapolis Colts have won four of their last five games entering the playoffs. In contrast, pessimists will say they lost their previous two games when facing playoff competition against the Steelers and Titans. Before that Week 12 home loss to Tennessee, the Colts had beaten the Titans and Packers in back-to-back weeks. Thus, the Colts know what it takes to beat winning teams. Much of Indianapolis’s success of late can be credited to Jonathan Taylor’s legs, who has averaged 123.5 YPC over the last six games. Taylor has seven rushing touchdowns over the last four games, which is almost double his total of four from Weeks 1-13. Indianapolis did not seem to miss the services of left tackle Anthony Castonzo last week, who recently underwent season-ending ankle surgery. However, Buffalo’s defense will present a much more formidable challenge this week, unlike Jacksonville’s defense that allowed them to rush for 273 yards. The Colts enter this game with the eighth-ranked total defense and are the second-stingiest defense against the run after allowing just 90.5 YPG on the ground in the regular season.
The Buffalo Bills made a statement last week in scoring 56 points on a Dolphins team that entered the game as the league’s best scoring defense. The more impressive part is that they accomplished that feat while only playing most offensive starters for just a half. It was the best-case scenario for the Bills, who took care of their own business in securing the AFC’s No. 2 seed while resting key players in the process. Buffalo has now won nine of its last ten games, with the only loss coming on a Hail Mary in the final seconds against the Arizona Cardinals. Their stellar play can be credited in large part to an offense that finished the regular season second in scoring, averaging 31.3 PPG. Stefon Diggs became the first Bills receiver in franchise history to lead the league in receptions and yards, and his 166 targets were six more than the next closest receiver. Josh Allen finished fifth in passing yards and touchdowns, while his completion percentage improved from 52.8% in his rookie year to a career-best 69.2% this year.
Trends
- The Bills have won each of their last 11 games as a moderate favorite (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Colts and Bills.
- The Colts are 3-0 ATS in their last three Wild Card round playoff games.
Bottom Line
While the Indianapolis Colts have been the more successful playoff team of late, this is a new-look team with Philip Rivers under center. Rivers has been less than stellar in his playoff career, going 5-6 in his 11 starts with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. While Josh Allen will be making his second career playoff start, everything he has improved upon and accomplished this year suggests he is ready to break through for his first win.
Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will be atop many teams’ lists when searching for a head coach. His play-calling, along with the presence of Stefon Diggs, has taken Josh Allen to levels never before seen in his three-year career. Just two of Buffalo’s last nine wins have come by less than 10 points, and that span includes wins over a 10-win Dolphins team as well as the Steelers and Seahawks.
While Indianapolis is stout against the run, they ranked just 20th against the pass to finish the regular season. That is not a good recipe for success against a Bills team that has completely changed their identity and has no problem attempting 50+ passes in this game. If Buffalo can jump out to an early lead, Indianapolis will not rely on their running game with Jonathan Taylor as much as they would hope.
This Buffalo team is peaking at precisely the right moment. They are a close-knit bunch that gels well together and have played loose for much of the second half of the season. Though the Bills are 0-2 in the playoffs under head coach Sean McDermott, this will be their first taste of a home playoff game. Even though less than 7,000 of Bills Mafia will be in attendance, they have an advantage of playing outdoors in January against a team used to playing in a dome. Do not underestimate that fact, as that will have significant implications on how this game plays out. As Bills legend Marv Levy always said, “When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”
Look for the Bills to continue to pile up the points and dominate a Colts team that is fortunate to be playing this week.
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