The Western Conference Finals get started on Tuesday night. The top-seeded Nuggets will take on the surging Lakers. This will be a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals in which the Lakers won in five games, eventually winning the NBA title in the Orlando bubble.
This time around, the Nuggets are favored to advance to their first NBA Finals in franchise history, LeBron James and his quest for a fifth ring will have something to say about that. This is a fantastic matchup full of star power and should be entertaining all the way through.
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NBA Western Conference Finals Picks & Predictions
Let's dig deeper into this Wester Conference Finals matchup to find some of the best betting angles.
Denver Nuggets Preview
This is Denver's fifth appearance in the Western Conference Finals and the fourth time they will be facing the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets had a phenomenal season led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. They captured the Western Conference's best record at 53-29 and breezed through the Timberwolves and Suns to get to this point.
Jamal Murray is playing the best basketball that he's played since they were back in the bubble in 2020. His resurgence has taken Denver to the next level in these playoffs, providing an important scoring opti0n next to Jokic. The Nuggets have missed that component dearly in the last two postseasons which Murray missed.
Denver is perhaps the deepest and most complete team left in these playoffs. Led by an elite offense and a defense that has stepped up recently, the Nuggets have their sights set on winning eight more games to bring the Larry O'Brien trophy to the Mile High City.
Los Angeles Lakers Preview
After a two-year absence, James is back in the Conference Finals for the 13th time. Like in 2020, LeBron has the assistance of a healthy Anthony Davis, but that is pretty much where the comparisons end.
At the trade deadline, the Lakers reshaped their entire roster ,adding savvy veterans like D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt. The Lakers went from being a collection of players around two superstars to a well-constructed team with depth.
The Lakers ups and downs this season have coincided with their defensive output. Early in the season, when they were not playing well, the defense was toward the bottom of the league by adjusted net defense. After the trade deadline, the defense has jumped back up into the top five. They will have their hands full with a strong Denver offense, but the experience of the Lakers may be enough to pull off the upset and send LeBron to his 11th NBA Finals.
Season Series
The Nuggets and Lakers met four times during the regular season, splitting the matchups with each team winning their home games. Unsurprisingly, each game came down to which team shot and rebounded the ball more effectively. This bodes well for a Denver team that both shot the ball better (highest eFG% NBA) as well as rebounded the ball better with a OREB (13th) and DREB (12th) percentage.
Denver will have to rely on that strong shooting as the Lakers led the league in defensive FT rate. The Nuggets were only 19th at getting to the charity stripe.
We can't expect the season series to tell us too much about what we should expect for the Western Conference Finals. All four games were played January 9 or earlier. That’s well before the Lakers overhauled their roster and were playing the kind of ball they're playing now. The lack of total familiarity between these two squads is what makes this series so compelling.
Series Prediction
The Lakers have benefitted from some luck to get to this point. A matchup with Memphis minus two of their biggest rebounding and post threats as well as an injured Ja Morant was a recipe for an easy series win. Round two saw the Lakers take care of a flawed Warriors team coming off of a grueling seven-game series against Sacramento.
Denver is as healthy as any team could be this time of year. They throughly dismantled a talented Suns team that needed incredible performances by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to avoid a sweep.
The Lakers' defense is stout enough to make this a series. Offensive output from D'Angelo Russell and even Austin Reaves can change the ceiling of this team. For Denver, Jokic is the straw that stirs the drink, but this could be a coming out party for Jamal Murray.
Murray averaged 22.8 PPG against the Lakers during the regular season, trailing only Jokic (23.3 PPG). Overall, the Nuggets should prove to be too much with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the league. I expect a valiant effort from Los Angeles, but in the end, the Nuggets pull this series out and advance to their first ever NBA Finals.
Best Bets
- Denver Series: ML (-140 @FanDuel)
- Jamal Murray: Series Leading Scorer (+550 @DraftKings)
- Series Correct Score: Denver 4-2 (+600 @BetMGM)
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