The Las Vegas Raiders’ playoff chances took a big hit with last week’s 44-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They currently sit one game back of both the Dolphins and Ravens for the AFC’s last playoff spot. Thus, the Raiders are likely going to need to win out and hope for chaos in front of them in order to be playing in the postseason. Will their three-game run to end the season begin with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers? Or will Los Angeles revel in the role of spoiler and win their second consecutive game for the first time all season?
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Details
- Opening Lines: DraftKings had the odds open as Raiders -3; O/U 54.5
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- Start Time: 8:20 pm ET
- Television: FOX/NFL
- Last Meeting: November 8, 2020 - Raiders 31, Chargers 26
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LAC
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+3.5
-108
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o53
-109
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+165
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LV
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-3.5
-113
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u53
-112
|
-195
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Overview
The Los Angeles Chargers showed great resilience in bouncing back from a 45-0 loss to the Patriots by beating the Falcons 20-17 at home last week. It was one of quarterback Justin Herbert’s quieter games, as he threw for just 243 yards despite 44 pass attempts. Herbert and the Chargers get a tasty matchup against Las Vegas’s 25th-ranked total defense and 30th-ranked scoring defense that allows 30.1 PPG. The Chargers are in search of what would be their biggest win of the season, as their four wins are against teams with a combined seven wins on the season. This is the first of three divisional games that Los Angeles will play to end the season.
The Las Vegas Raiders had a golden opportunity to get themselves in the playoff mix but were outmatched by a more physical Colts team. They allowed 456 total yards to Indianapolis, 212 of which came on the ground. Las Vegas has now allowed 115 points in their last three games despite facing two offenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring in that span. Those shortcomings led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, who is now replaced by interim coordinator Rod Marinelli for the remaining three games. Will the team respond with a spirited effort against their division rival? The Raiders have lost three of their last four games, with the lone win being a miraculous last-second come-from-behind victory over the winless New York Jets.
Trends
- The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games against AFC West opponents.
- The Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six night games.
- The over is 5-1 in Las Vegas’s last six home games.
Prop Bet (odds courtesy of DraftKings)
First to Reach 30 Points: LV +125/ LAC +300 / TIE (neither team reaches 30) +140
Weird things happen on Thursday night football, as the lack of preparation time has shown to clearly affect teams in the past. With the exception of the Thanksgiving doubleheader, five of the last seven Thursday night games have seen each team fail to reach 30 points. The only teams who have broken 30 points in that span are the Packers and Colts, who rank first and fifth in the league in scoring respectively. Both the Raiders and Chargers rank outside the top 10 in scoring, and the fact that these are two divisional opponents meeting for the second time tends to lend itself to lower scoring games.
Bottom Line
The Los Angeles Chargers seemingly play the league’s craziest and most dramatic game each week. Of their nine losses, seven have come by one possession. They had their chances to beat both the Chiefs and Saints, which proves they can hang with the best teams in the league. In their 31-26 loss to the Raiders in Week 9, they thought they had the game winning touchdown as time expired but replay determined their four-yard touchdown pass to Donald Parham Jr. was incomplete. If that call went Los Angeles’s way, they would likely be less than the 3.5-point underdogs they are now.
The Chargers also played their first matchup without Austin Ekeler, who has provided a nice boost to this offense in the three games he has been healthy. Ekeler has totaled 129 or more yards in two of the last three games despite facing stingy the stingy defenses of the Bills, Patriots and Falcons.
Overall, something has not seemed right with the Raiders for the last month, and their problems are deeper than a change in coordinators can fix. They have an eerily similar feel to last year’s team that lost five of their last six games to miss the playoffs after a promising start.
The fact that this is the second time these teams have met should make for another close game, especially since it is played on a short week with less time to prepare. The Chargers have a great chance at an outright upset in a game that should be lower scoring than expected given it is played on Thursday night.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.