Matthew Freedman’s 2023 NHL Player Projection Model

I don’t know anything about hockey. If you asked me to spell the full name of even one player in the NHL today, I wouldn’t be able to do it. Many of those names are hard to spell — and I don’t know one single player anyway.

I don’t watch hockey … although I might now, given that I just noticed that my Dallas Stars are still in the postseason. I’m a loyal longtime fan, obviously. That was definitely a goal by Brett Hull in the 1999 Stanley Cup Final. Trust me: I know and understand all the rules of hockey.

Anyway, despite knowing almost nothing about the sport, I built a “model” (set of spreadsheets) in the late spring of 2019 to project player production for the NHL playoffs, because March Madness and the NFL draft had ended and my degeneracy knows no bounds.

I did well.

Today was my worst NHL prop betting slate of the postseason: Lucky to go 4-5-1 (-1.52).

Total playoffs record: 101-53-8 (+39.56).

Looking forward to working on my player projections for the next few months and attacking props hard when the regular season starts in October.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) June 13, 2019

Whenever the 2019-20 season started in the fall I didn’t have the bandwidth to build out the model as I’d intended — and then the sport was suspended in the spring because of the pandemic, so I’ve never returned to betting NHL player props.

Today, that changes.

I’ve spent the past couple weeks updating and revamping (hopefully improving) my NHL model, so now Daddy is ready not only to refer to himself in the third person as “Daddy” — he’s also ready to burn some dollar billz (“z” intended) on a slew of downright dirty hockey propositions.

Freedman's 2023 NHL Playoffs Betting Plan

Again, I know nothing about hockey. I cannot emphasize that enough.

So I won’t be betting on game totals or moneylines.

But every day moving forward — with plenty of necessary help from Kelly Kirby, who knows hockey very well — my model will project the lineups for every team and the following stats for each skater and goalie we expect to play.

Skaters: Goals, Assists, Points, Shots, Blocks
Goalies: Saves

Basically, all the markets supported on our NHL player props page.

We’ll publish these projections in free articles so that everyone can access them, and in these articles I’ll post the prop bets I’m making based on the projections. (Since I don't follow hockey, I won't provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of getting the projections out each day. Just doesn't seem worth it.)

Also, before I publish my article I’ll post my player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord — so be sure to join the Discord for early notice.

If there's a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.