MLB Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/20)

The second half of the season is underway, and now it's crunch time. With the trade deadline just a couple of weeks away, this is when teams need to figure out if they're buyers or sellers, and these games can determine that.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Arizona Diamondbacks (+165) at Atlanta Braves (-195) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)

Spencer Strider never struggled last year, as opposed to a couple of rough starts in 2023, but looking at his metrics, he is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. His 38.9 strikeout rate is a league-best, and he's in the 90th+ percentile in xBA, whiff rate, fastball velocity, and chase rate. He's already seen the D-Backs and allowed two earned in six for the win.

Zac Gallen is having another exceptional year after coming off the 2022 season, where he achieved some career highs. His control, with his walk percentage in the 89th percentile and chase percentage in the 77th, has helped him tremendously. He also has started against Atlanta this year, allowing two earned in a no-decision.

Two overpowering pitchers, and although neither lineup strikes out a lot, they both averaged one per inning in their starts against these opponents. This is a high run total for these two pitchers.

Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

San Fransisco Giants (-115) at Cincinnati Reds (-105) | O/U 9.5 (-115/-105)

Alex Cobb has been an important piece in this Giants' rotation as they compete for a division title. He resembles his days with Tampa Bay, having command of his pitches, and his 5.7 walk rate could be his best in the Statcast era (2015-present). He's been great over the last two months, with the team going 10-1 in his last ten starts.

Andrew Abbott has been another player on this Cincinnati roster to come to the main roster and immediately make an impact. This tremendous start is due to his ability to use his fastball and curveball to keep hitters off balance, leading to a strikeout rate in the 75th percentile.

I will attack the early part of this game, and I like Abbott and Cobb to keep it offensively quiet.

Pick: Under 4.5 Runs in the First 5 Innings (+100)

Baltimore Orioles (+155) at Tampa Bay Rays (-180) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-120)

Although he has nine starts because of an injury start the season, Tyler Glasnow has proven his efficiency by allowing three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts. The one? It was against Baltimore when he gave up six earned in 4.1 innings. As a whole, the roster is hitting well against him with a .273 average and .545 slugging.

Kyle Gibson's record and ERA are better than last season, but the overall metrics show a regression. The strikeout percentage has dropped to below 20% and walk rate has moved up by one, and movement on his pitches has also declined. He has an awful history against this Rays lineup, as they are batting a collective .328.

This is an important series with the Orioles in first place for the first time all season. For this game, we should expect to see an offensive showdown.

Pick: Over 8.5 (+100)