Though the Houston Astros are below .500 through their first 19 games, the most anticipated weekend series is still their series against the Atlanta Braves, as it is a rematch of the 2021 World Series. However, another high-profile AL East series opener and two other games make up today’s plays in our best bet column.
Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.
YTD: 21-30-1 (-5.80 units)
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays (+114) vs. New York Yankees (-134) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
New York righty Domingo German pitched the most dominant game of any Yankees starter not named Gerrit Cole this season, striking out 11 and allowing just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings against the Twins. However, his elite strikeout numbers (89th percentile in K%, 91st in Whiff%) should be mitigated by a Blue Jays lineup that ranks in the top ten in strikeout rate. In addition, while German has held current Blue Jays to a .213 average in 61 combined at-bats, he also has allowed five home runs (and nine extra-base hits total) in that span, which suggests the Blue Jays can put up runs in a hurry tonight.
The Yankees offense faces a Blue Jays pitching staff that has allowed the fourth-most runs in the American League. In particular, they have had success against southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed a .280/.367/.495 slash line to current Yankees over a combined 93 at-bats. In addition, three of New York’s biggest hitters (DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Judge) all have an OPS of .928 or better against Kikuchi, which suggests it should get a lot of run production from the top of the order.
TheYankees entered Thursday as the most profitable team to the Under this season, cashing it in 12 of 18 games. However, with their success against Kikuchi and the regression expected from German, we are backing the Over.
Pick: Blue Jays-Yankees Over 8.5 (-122)
Washington Nationals (+172) vs. Minnesota Twins (-205) | O/U 7.5 (-112/-108)
The Twins have the A.L.’s fifth-best run differential (+17) and are facing a Nationals team with the N.L.’s third-worst run differential. Thus, it makes sense to mitigate their steep -205 moneyline odds and back the runline instead.
Minnesota’s Tyler Mahle may only be just 33-41 in his career, but his .750 winning percentage (3-1 record) against the Nationals is the second-highest against any opponent he has made more than two starts against. Though his 1.435 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 rates are on pace to be his highest since 2018, that should not be an issue against a Nationals offense that has hit a league-low eight home runs and ranks in the bottom half of the league in BABIP. Furthering the case for Mahle, his swing-and-miss stuff (10.6 K/9) is on pace to be the second-highest of his career, and he ranks in the top third of all pitchers in whiff percentage and average exit velocity.
Conversely, Washington’s Trevor Williams has an xERA of 5.14 versus an actual ERA of 3.52. In addition, another key area where regression is expected is on his fastball, as Williams has allowed an OBA of .133 against his fastball but only finished one year of his career with an OBA of less than .243 against the pitch.
The Nationals have won seven of the last eight meetings with the Twins, but we are ignoring that trend and expect Minnesota to win its fifth consecutive interleague home game in a big way.
Pick: Twins RL (+102)
St. Louis Cardinals (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners (-142) | O/U 8 (-112/-108)
This line has moved wildly in Seattle’s favor overnight, as St. Louis was a small road favorite when the line opened. However, that does not deter us from backing the Cardinals against a Mariners team that was 11 games over .500 at home last year. In addition, the odds and the low 8.0 O/U suggest that Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz is in line for a successful start.
The Cardinals have lost all three of Matz’s starts by a combined 17-8, and he has allowed nine hits and four earned runs in two of the three starts. However, he has still recorded at least 16 outs in every start this season, as his durability (team-leading 98.7 pitches per start) helps to overcome a 1.80 WHIP. From a run-production standpoint, Matz is coming off his best start of the season and can build off the momentum of limiting the Pirates to two runs despite issuing five walks. The Mariners are one of the least patient teams at the plate (8.5% walk rate ranks 21st), so Matz should be more confident attacking the strike zone in his fourth start.
St. Louis has won six of its previous seven interleague games, while Seattle is just 5-12 in its last 17 series openers.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+120)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.