Now that it’s May, we’re shifting focus to the MLB for our system plays. We’ve got over a month of data, which should help us identify some really good value on the betting board moving forward.
Take a look at the three MLB betting system plays I’ve listed below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Betting System Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
High Percentage Under Hits
The “High Percentage Under Hits” system has added a 1.8% return on investment (ROI) lifetime over its first 1,107 bets. It’s won nearly 60% of the time and has added more than 19 units of profit.
Ultimately, this system looks for batters to go under in the hits category. To qualify, the player must have a cost of -250 to +250 and have hit the over in none of his last five games and just two of his last 10 games.
Andres Gimenez of the Toronto Blue Jays has added a .038 ISO and wOBA of .179 with 27.6% of strikeouts against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Logan Allen of the Guardians, who has held his first 22 lefties to 44.4% of ground balls and only 16.7% of fly balls. Gimenez has hit more than 72% of ground balls against lefties over the last month and has added just 27.8% of hard contact.
Let’s take Gimenez to go under 0.5 hits.
Pick: Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 Hits (+143)
It Took My Breathe Away Mark ll
This next system has added a 64% win percentage since last year. It looks for players to go under in the runs category with a cost of -220 to +10000. Ultimately, that player can’t have hit the over in more than 20% of games and has to have hit the over in no more than five of the last 15 games to qualify.
Rhys Hoskins currently has a .143 ISO and wOBA of .366 against righties. Ultimately, he hasn’t shown much power against righties and will face Chicago Cubs starter Ben Brown. Brown has limited righties to a .087 ISO and has done well keeping righties away from extra-base hits.
That said, behind Hoskins in the lineup for the Brewers are Jake Bauers, Joey Ortiz and Caleb Durbin. These three hitters have hit an ISO below .100 and a wOBA of .266 or worse. It’s hard to imagine any of those guys can get Hoskins in with a base hit against Brown or the rest of the Chicago pitching staff.
Let’s take the under here.
Pick: Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 Runs (-194)
Getting blown out day before
This final system looks for teams that lost in a blowout the game before. It’s a simple strategy.
Since last season, this system has added a 4.3% ROI, a 52% win percentage and nearly 50 units of profit.
The Marlins are +115 underdogs against the Athletics at home tonight. Ultimately, the Athletics are a pure mystery with top prospect Gunnar Hoglund getting the start. I don’t mind fading a young pitcher like this, especially with the home team at +115.
The Marlins have hit right-handers well, including Agustin Ramirez, a right-handed catcher slugging a .520 ISO against righties over the last 30 days.
Let’s ride with the Marlins on the Moneyline using this system.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
