MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (6/12)

It’s rare when all the players we target for home run props come from the same game. But here we are, taking advantage of two awful pitchers and backing two of the best offenses in the league.

If you have not guessed the game, we are attacking the starting pitching in today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles.

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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks

Gunnar Henderson (+350) & Ryan O'Hearn (+520)

Spencer Schwellenbach is making his third start for the Braves this afternoon. It’s safe to say his first two starts were not very impressive. The right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA and two home runs allowed.

It’s a small sample size due to there only being two starts to his name, but righties have an ISO of .333 and a wOBA of .521, while lefties have an ISO of .310 and a wOBA of .325. Combining those metrics with a low K% of 20.8% shows he does have elite stuff.

You can argue that the Baltimore Orioles have the best offense in the MLB. When facing right-handed pitching, only the New York Yankees have more home runs as a team.

The Orioles have four players with an ISO of .200 against righties, with Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander with double-digit home runs.

We all know how good Henderson has been; he is an MVP candidate. Seventeen of his 21 homers have come against right-handed pitching, and his .341 ISO is sixth-best in the league.

Ryan O’Hearn feasts on right-handed pitching. All nine of his home runs have come off right-handed pitchers.

Both of these Orioles had the day off yesterday and should be rejuvenated and ready to go for a big day at the plate.

Matt Olson (+400) & Adam Duvall (+320)

In the opposite dugout, the Orioles are starting Cade Povich. Povich made his season debut against the Blue Jays; as you can imagine, it did not go well. The left-hander allowed six runs on five hits (one home run) over 5.1 innings pitched.

While the Braves offense hasn’t been as dominant as last year, it is still one of the top 10 in the league, especially against lefties.

We are using a super small sample size since Cade Povich only has one start in 2024 to go on. But in his only start, he had a K% of 9.1%. Not being able to get guys to swing and miss at pitches is a recipe for disaster, especially against this Braves lineup.

Matt Olson and Adam Duvall are one and two on the team in homers and ISO against lefties.

I expect fireworks in this game; let's hope it comes to fruition.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: