I’ve added a home run prop in two of the last three articles written. Let’s try to add a third with tonight’s massive slate in the MLB. Here are my top three MLB home run props below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase DeLauter (+650)
Chase DeLauter has looked really strong against right-handed pitching this season. He’s smacked a .400 ISO and wOBA of .395 with only 17% of strikeouts against righties. He’s also hit 30.3% of fly balls, a 57.6% hard contact rate, and a team-best 18.2% barrel percentage against righties.
Tonight, the rookie slugger will battle Chris Bassitt of the Orioles. Bassitt is a veteran pitcher who has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .483 to lefties this season. Bassitt struggled against lefties last season, and it’s carried over to this season. He’s struck out left-handed batters only 6.2% of the time this season, while allowing 28% of line drives.
Give DeLauter a chance, especially at +650 odds.
Matt Olson (+310)
Matt Olson will compete against Taijuan Walker of the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Walker has allowed a .356 ISO and wOBA of .472 to left-handed hitters this season. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has struggled against lefties to start the season.
Walker has struck out 13.7% of lefties and has allowed a 10.3% barrel percentage, while earning only 5.4% of swinging strikes against lefties. Walker has also allowed 28.2% of line drives.
Matt Olson is a candidate to smash a line drive over the fence. He’s hit a .233 ISO and wOBA of .384 against righties since last season, while adding 30% of fly balls against righties. He’s also hit 70% of hard contact and a 15.9% barrel percentage against righties.
Olson looks great on paper.
Rafael Devers (+350)
Rafael Devers has slugged a .233 ISO and wOBA of .377 agaisnt right-handed pitching since last season. The lefty hasn’t been amazing this year, but he can certainly find success against Zack Littell tonight.
Littell has allowed a .375 ISO and wOBA of .401 to lefties this season. He’s also given up 35.7% of fly balls and 57.1% of hard contact to lefties this season. Lefties have hit a 14.3% barrel percentage with only a 7.8% swinging strike rate. In fact, Littell has been lucky against lefties, allowing a .167 BABIP to start the season. That’s going to change sooner than later if these analytics against lefties stay the same.
Let’s look for Devers to be the one to change it.
