It’s another weekend filled with MLB on the slate. I’ve added three MLB home run props for tonight’s action that you’ll want to consider below. Let’s lock in!
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Joc Pederson (+390)
The San Diego Padres will start Randy Vasquez tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .259 ISO and a wOBA of .407 to his last 65 lefties. He’s also given up 34% of fly balls, while inducing only 24% of ground balls to lefties. Additionally, Vasquez has allowed 54% of hard contact and a 10% barrel percentage.
He’ll battle Joc Pederson of the Texas Rangers at the top of the lineup. Pederson has destroyed right-handed pitching, launching a .273 ISO and a wOBA of .359 against his last 74 righties. He’s also hit 50% of hard contact against righties with a 10.7% barrel percentage over the last month.
Let’s ride with Pederson at +390.
Alec Burleson (+390)
Alec Burleson has come through for us over the last couple of weeks. Let’s see if he can do it one more time.
Burleson has hit a .338 ISO and a wOBA of .465 against his last 79 righties. The lefty has hit 30.9% of fly balls, 65.5% of hard contact, and a team-best 14.5% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
He’s set to take on Seth Lugo of the Royals, who has allowed lefties to hit a .234 ISO and a wOBA of .358 over the last month. In fact, Lugo has allowed more fly balls than ground balls induced, and has given up a 17.1% barrel percentage to lefties in that time.
Burleson is red hot. Let’s hope he stays that way tonight.
Bryan Reynolds (+310)
Over the last month, Bryan Reynolds has smashed a .448 ISO and a wOBA of .558 against his last 34 lefties. He’s added 27.3% of fly balls, 31.8% of line drives, with 77.3% of hard contact and an 18.2% barrel percentage.
Reynolds is scorching against lefties and will take on lefty Kyle Freeland. Reynolds is ultimately a switch-hitter, but would bat from the right side against Freeland tonight.
Freeland has allowed a .337 ISO and a wOBA of .462 to his last 99 righties. He’s also allowed 35.8% of fly balls and a 14.8% barrel percentage. Beyond that, Freeland has earned just 14.1% of strikeouts against righties and has given up over 65% of hard contact.
This is a massive matchup for Reynolds on paper. Let’s take advantage.
