With a full slate of games in the MLB tonight, I’ve added my top three MLB home run props below. We’ve had a couple of really solid weekends lately. Let’s keep the momentum going tonight.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mike Yastrzemski (+590)
Over the last 30 days, Mike Yastrzemski has a .302 ISO and a wOBA of .470 against his last 52 righties. He’s been patient at the plate and has struck out just 17.3% of the time against righties during that stretch.
Tonight, Yastrzemski battles Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Keller has allowed a .236 ISO and a wOBA of .337 to his last 75 lefties. Those lefties have a 14% barrel rate with 52.6% of hard contact. He’s also struck out just 20% of lefties over the last month.
Yastrzemski has hit 35.3% of fly balls and 50% of hard contact against righties over the last 30 days. This is a good spot for him to go deep.
Brent Rooker (+340)
The Astros are set to pitch Peter Lambert. The right-hander has struggled more against right-handed hitters over the last month and throughout the season.
Lambert has allowed a .211 ISO and a wOBA of .368 to his last 39 righties. He’s also allowed 64.5% of hard contact with 38.7% of fly balls to righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, Lambert will take on Brent Rooker of the Athletics, who has hit a .203 ISO and a wOBA of .325 against his last 83 righties as a right-handed batter. Rooker has slugged 45.1% of fly balls and a 15.7% barrel rate against righties. Let’s give Rooker a chance tonight.
JJ Bleday (+470)
JJ Bleday has a homer in two of his last five games. He also has a .299 ISO and a wOBA of .394 against his last 77 right-handed pitchers faced.
Bleday is set to face Kyle Leahy of the Cardinals, who is another righty struggling to get lefties out. Leahy has given up a .179 ISO and a wOBA of .398 to his last 46 lefties.
Those lefties have also hit 67.7% of hard contact and a 16.1% barrel rate. Leahy has walked 13% of lefties over the last 30 days, proving he’s falling behind in counts. Bleday could take advantage of hitters’ counts tonight.
Plus, Bleday has added 60.8% of hard contact with an 11.8% barrel rate against righties over the last month. He’s breaking out, and it’s been fun to watch.
