The Milwaukee Brewers escaped with a Game 1 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series (NLCS). They’ll play Game 2 this evening. Meanwhile, Game 1 of the ALCS between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays will follow. Here are my top MLB home run props for tonight’s games.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Muncy (+410)
The Milwaukee Brewers have penciled in Logan Henderson as tonight’s starter. The right-handed starter has allowed a .257 ISO and a .326 wOBA against his last 41 lefties. He’s also given up 30.8% of line drives and has struck out just 22% of lefties, while walking 12.2% in that time.
Meanwhile, Max Muncy has a .319 ISO and a .383 wOBA against his last 52 righties. He’s also smacked 34.2% of fly balls, 50% of hard contact and earned a 15.8% barrel rate.
Ultimately, all of the Dodgers’ lefties have strong potential. So that’s the route we’ll take tonight.
Shohei Ohtani (+310)
It hasn’t been the most ideal season for Shohei Ohtani. He has a .050 ISO and a wOBA of .177 against his last 21 righties, while striking out over 38% of the time. But he’s Shohei Ohtani. I’ll stick with him, especially against Henderson.
Ohtani has still hit 33.3% of fly balls and 66.7% of hard contact with a 33.3% barrel rate. The analytics still look good for one of the greatest players in MLB history. At +310, I’ll gladly ride with Ohtani here. Who wouldn’t?
I rarely back Ohtani in these articles because his odds are usually shorter than +300. But not today. Let’s take advantage.
Kyle Tucker (+680)
Let’s ride with another Dodgers lefty.
Kyle Tucker has a .209 ISO and a .409 wOBA against his last 52 righties. Tucker, like Ohtani, didn’t have the season he hoped for. But he’s been good recently. That’s what matters most.
It’s been hard to strike Tucker out. Plus, he’s hit just 30.8% of ground balls and 41% of fly balls against righties in the last month. That’ll keep you confident.
Henderson has allowed 42.3% of hard contact and has induced just 23.1% of ground balls against lefties in the last month. Tucker should get the ball in the air multiple times against Henderson. Grab him to hit a homer at +680. He’s coming around.
