We’ve nailed a home run prop in three of the last four articles. Let’s see if we can start the new week strong. Take a look at my top three MLB home run props for tonight’s massive slate.
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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Liam Hicks (+710)
Liam Hicks has added a .189 ISO and a wOBA of .357 against right-handed pitching over the last month. Tonight, he’ll battle JR Ritchie of the Atlanta Braves, who has allowed lefties to hit a .255 ISO and a wOBA of .393 over that same time period.
Ritchie has given up 33.3% of fly balls and a 10.3% barrel rate to lefties. He’s also added just 18.8% of strikeouts against lefties. On the other hand, the lefty Hicks has added 28.6% of fly balls with 45.7% of hard contact. Hicks has a ton of value at +710 odds.
Ryan Vilade (+820)
You’ll rarely find +820 odds for a player to hit a home run in the cleanup spot. But that’s likely what we’ll get tonight.
Ryan Vilade is projected to bat fourth tonight for the Rays. He’s hit a .192 ISO and a wOBA of .401 with 14.3% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month. Beyond that, the right-hander has added 31.8% of fly balls against lefties, along with over 40% of hard contact.
Vilade faces Trevor Rogers of the Orioles, who has struggled against his last 37 righties - .375 ISO and a wOBA of .527. Rogers has also given up an 18.5% barrel rate to righties and 55.6% of hard contact.
Why not give Vilade a shot?
Munetaka Murakami (+330)
It’ll be Bryan Woo on the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight. The expectations were high for the right-hander, but he’s really struggled analytically against lefties over the last month.
Woo has allowed a .255 ISO and a wOBA of .319 to his last 61 lefties. He’s also given up a 17.8% barrel rate, while adding only 6.6% of swinging strikes. Additionally, Woo has allowed 31.1% of fly balls, while inducing just 22.2% of ground balls against lefties.
Murakami has become one of the best power sluggers in the game, hitting a .397 ISO and a wOBA of .434 against his last 80 righties faced.
The lefty slugger has socked 53.7% of fly balls and an 87.8% hard-hit rate against righties in the last 30 days. He also has a 29.3% barrel rate against righties over the last month.
Let’s rock with Murakami to hit another bomb tonight.
