This Game 5 matchup isn’t ideal for home run props. Tread lightly. That said, my top three MLB home run props for Game 5 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) are below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Ramirez (+760)
I’m targeting some Guardians tonight.
Jose Ramirez has been clutch throughout this postseason. He has a .300 ISO and a wOBA of .477 against righties in the last 30 days and has added over 36% of fly balls with 44.4% of hard contact against righties. The switch-hitter will bat from the left side early in the game when facing righty Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen has allowed over 32% of fly balls to lefties in the last month, while giving up 47.5% of hard contact. This season, he allowed 44.9% of hard contact to lefties.
I’ll give Ramirez a shot just based on his overall production over the last month. He’ll likely get a chance against another pitcher later in the game, too.
Chase DeLauter (+920)
Chase DeLauter is another exciting option. The lefty has added a .206 ISO and a .404 wOBA against righties over the last month. He’s super patient at the plate, but that could leave him with some hitter’s counts to turn on something.
DeLauter has added 50% of hard contact and 33.3% of line drives against righties. He could hook one over the wall tonight. We have to see him have 2-1 or 3-1 type counts. That’ll be big. At +920, I’ll take my chances with the No. 3 hitter for the Guardians.
Victor Mesa Jr. (+920)
Victor Mesa Jr. is a left-handed hitter who has added a .240 ISO and a wOBA of .398 against his last 27 lefties. He’s added 50% of hard contact and an 11.1% barrel rate against lefties in the last month.
Additionally, Mesa has a .375 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties and has still hit over 22% of fly balls during this stretch.
Mesa is set to bat cleanup against lefty Parker Messick. Messick has allowed a .392 wOBA to his last 30 lefties and a 9.1% barrel rate with 68.2% hard contact. He’s even earned just 20% of strikeouts against lefties in the last month.
We’ll give Mesa a chance.
