We’ve got an exciting 15-game MLB slate today. While we didn’t nail a home run prop last night, two of the three recorded extra-base hits. We’re getting close. Here are my top three MLB home run props for today’s action.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
James Wood (+470)
James Wood has a .231 ISO and wOBA of .365 against right-handed pitching since last season. The strikeouts have been high, too. But he’s facing Adrian Houser of the Giants, who has struck out only 13.5% of lefties as a right-handed pitcher.
Wood has a 18.4% barrel rate since last season against righties and has hit almost 29% of line drives with a team-best 68% hard-hit rate.
This season, Houser has allowed a .265 ISO and wOBA of .463 with 41.4% of line drives, 55.2% of hard contact and a 10.3% barrel rate to lefties. Wood has the potential to smash a line drive over the fence tonight.
Alec Burleson (+520)
The Houston Astros will give Lance McCullers Jr. the start tonight. The right-hander has struggled against lefties, allowing a .188 ISO and wOBA of .349. He’s also allowed 56.5% of hard contact and a 17.4% barrel rate, while adding only 9.4% of swinging strikes.
Alec Burleson has been the only consistent power hitter on the Cardinals since last season in this projected lineup. He’s added a .185 ISO and wOBA of .369 against righties with only 13.6% of strikeouts since last season.
Burleson has also added 30.9% of fly balls and 54.1% of hard contact, while limiting ground balls to below 40%.
Back Burleson to go deep tonight at +520 odds.
Ketel Marte (+320)
Let’s pick on Max Scherzer tonight. The veteran righty has allowed a .300 ISO and a wOBA of .394 to all batters to begin the season. Lefties have hit 47.6% of fly balls with a 19% barrel rate. Scherzer has struck out only 16.7% of lefties this season and has added just 8.5% of swinging strikes this year against lefties.
Last year, it was more of the same. Lefties hit a .289 ISO and a wOBA of .372 against Scherzer, and he struck out only 17.5% of lefties. He’ll take on a lot of lethal bats in the Arizona lineup, including Ketel Marte.
Marte is a switch-hitter but will bat left-handed against Scherzer. Against righties, he’s added a .234 ISO and a wOBA of .377 since last season. Marte has also added 28.5% of fly balls against righties and has earned a 13.4% barrel rate against righties. He hasn’t had the strongest of starts, but this matchup against Scherzer is too good to overlook.
