We’re looking for some big blasts on Mother’s Day. Who will come through? Check out my top three MLB home run props for today’s 15-game slate below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Samuel Basallo (+440)
Over the last 30 days, Samuel Basallo has smashed a .242 ISO and a wOBA of .386 against right-handed pitching. The left-handed catcher has even limited strikeouts to 20.8% during that time and has hit 31.4% of line drives with 51% of hard contact against right-handed pitching.
Basallo will tee off against Luis Severino of the Athletics, who has struggled against lefties. Severino has allowed a .169 ISO and a wOBA of .361 against his last 75 lefties. Those lefties have hit nearly a 15% barrel rate with 63.8% of hard contact. Severino has also allowed 36.2% of fly balls and has only added 8.3% of swinging strikes.
Ride Basallo to go deep today.
Christian Walker (+310)
The Reds will send out left-handed starter Andrew Abbott. He’s given up a .195 ISO and a wOBA of .377 to his last 89 righties. Those righties have also struck out just 13.5% of the time against Abbott, while hitting 27.3% of fly balls and 31.8% of line drives.
Meanwhile, Christian Walker has slugged a .188 ISO and a wOBA of .347 against lefties over the last 30 days. The right-handed first baseman has been super patient at the plate against lefties and should continue to get solid hitter counts against Abbott today.
Walker has also hit 91.7% of hard contact with a 16.7% barrel rate against lefties over the last 30 days.
Corey Seager (+410)
Let’s finish off today’s home run props with Corey Seager.
Seager has hit a .243 ISO and a wOBA of 331 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. He’s also added 29.4% of line drives with 58.8% of hard contact and a team-best 19.6% barrel rate against righties during that time.
Seager will battle Jameson Taillon of the Chicago Cubs, who has allowed a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .384 against his last 59 lefties. Those 59 lefties have hit a 14.3% barrel rate with 48.6% of fly balls.
Seager certainly has some value to go long at +410 odds.
