Yesterday, Jordan Walker came through to cash a +390 home run prop. Can we add another winner with today’s slate? Here’s a look at my favorite three MLB home run props for Sunday, May 3.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jake Bauers (+420)
Jake Bauers has smashed a .194 ISO and a wOBA of .362 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. He’s also hit 31.4% of fly balls, 58.8% of hard contact, and a 9.8% barrel percentage against righties.
Today, he’ll battle Zack Littell of the Washington Nationals. Littell has been awful against both sides of the plate. Ultimately, lefties have slugged a .456 ISO and a wOBA of .501 against Littell this season. It hasn’t gotten better lately. He’s allowed an 18.9% barrel percentage over the last 30 days to lefties and has given up 54.7% of hard contact, while adding just 6.5% of strikeouts.
Jake Bauers is one of the only lefties performing in the Milwaukee lineup. Let’s give him a try at +420.
Junior Caminero (+370)
Tyler Mahle will take the hill for the San Francisco Giants today. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .489 to his last 60 righties. Those righties have hit a 17.1% barrel percentage and 29.3% of line drives. He’s also struck out 15% of righties during that time, while walking 16.7%. Mahle is falling behind in counts against righties right now.
Meanwhile, he’ll compete against Junior Caminero. The Tampa Bays third baseman has slugged a .299 ISO and a wOBA of .377 with only 17.5% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. He’s hit nearly 28.1% of fly balls and leads the Rays in hard contact rate against righties. Ride it out with Caminero. He’s got an elite matchup against Mahle.
Max Muncy (+440)
The Cardinals are set to pitch Dustin May today. The right-hander has been absolutely terrible against lefties to begin the season. He’s allowed a .197 ISO and a wOBA of .438, while adding just 13.8% of strikeouts. May has allowed 29.2% of line drives and 53.8% of hard contact to lefties.
He’ll battle Max Muncy of the Dodgers, who has hit a .319 ISO and a wOBA of .426 over the last 30 days against righties. Muncy has also hit 36.5% of fly balls and 67.3% of hard contact against righties. He’s also earned a 19.2% barrel percentage against righties over the last 30 days.
You can’t go wrong with any lefty against May right now.
