None of our top three picks came through yesterday. But we’ll shake it off and get back to the drawing board for today’s games. Here are three MLB home run props to consider for Sunday, May 31st.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ceddanne Rafaela (+920)
There’s plenty of value betting on Ceddanne Rafaela to hit a homer. He’s smashed a .206 ISO and a wOBA of .390 against righties as a right-handed batter over the last month. Rafaela faces righty Tanner Bibee, who has allowed a .267 ISO and a wOBA of .352 against the last 51 righties he’s faced.
Bibee has allowed 38.1% of fly balls to righties over the last 30 days and has earned just 9.8% of strikeouts during that stretch. Rafaela has added 28.1% of fly balls with over 40% of hard contact. At +920 odds, Rafael is worth a flier. He hit a homer earlier this week.
Garrett Mitchell (+710)
Garrett Mitchell has a .213 ISO and a wOBA of .366 against his last 53 righties. The left-hander strikes out at a high rate, but has also hit 77.8% of hard contact with an 18.5% barrel rate against righties.
Mitchell battles Tatsuya Imai of the Astros, who has watched the last 38 lefties he has faced hit a .290 ISO and a wOBA of .428. Imai has struck out fewer than 16% of lefties over the last month and has given up 28% of fly balls with a 16% barrel rate.
Let’s give Mitchell a shot. He’ll likely bat in the middle of the lineup today for the Brewers.
Paul Goldschmidt (+340)
Paul Goldschmidt is destroying left-handed pitching right now. The Yankees veteran has a .552 ISO and a wOBA of .645 against his last 34 lefties. That’s a strong sample size. Goldschmidt continues to rake and will likely bat leadoff.
Goldschmidt will face Jacob Lopez of the Athletics, who has allowed his last 80 righties to hit a .319 ISO and a wOBA of .404. Lopez has allowed 35% of fly balls and has struck out only 17.5% of right-handed batters over the last month.
Goldschmidt has hit 28% of fly balls, with a 72% of hard-hit rate and a team-best 24% barrel rate against lefties over the last 30 days.
