We struggled with our MLB home run props last night, but I feel even better about today’s three selections. Let’s get after it.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nathaniel Lowe (+340)
Nathaniel Lowe has slugged a .206 ISO and a wOBA of .410 against his last 75 right-handed pitchers. He’s also struck out just 16% of the time against righties and has hit over 29% of fly balls with 48.3% of hard contact against righties.
Meanwhile, Lowe will take on Tomoyuki Sugano of the Rockies, who has allowed a .370 ISO and a wOBA of .354 to his last 77 lefties. Those lefties have added a 15.6% barrel rate and 40.6% of hard contact with only 13% of strikeouts.
Additionally, Sugano has allowed 35.9% of fly balls over the last month. Give Lowe a shot today.
Jackson Merrill (+350)
It was a tough start for Jackson Merrill, but he’s really come alive in the second half of the season. The left-handed power bat has added a .339 ISO and a wOBA of .415 against righties over the last month.
Merill has added a team-best 40% fly-ball rate and has also led the team with a 20% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Merrill faces Bailey Ober of the Twins today, who has given up a .204 ISO and a wOBA of .316 to his last 52 lefties as a right-handed pitcher. Ober has allowed a 12.5% barrel rate and has given up close to 48% hard contact.
This is a good matchup for Merrill.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+560)
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a .333 ISO and a wOBA of .420 against his last 30 left-handed pitchers. He’s also hit over 26% of fly balls and has earned a 13% barrel rate against lefties during that stretch.
Acuna is set to tee off against lefty Shane Drohan of the Brewers. He has allowed a .185 ISO and a wOBA of .353 against his last 75 righties faced. Drohan has also allowed over 30% of fly balls and has earned just 21.3% of strikeouts against righties during this stretch.
Additionally, Drohan has given up an 8.2% barrel rate and has a below-average whiff rate. If Acuna gets ahold of one, watch out. It’s not very often you get elite hitters at +500 or higher odds to hit home runs. Acuna’s matchup is great tonight.
