Skip to main content Skip to navigation Skip to footer

MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (4/16)

MLB Home Run Props & Picks: Thursday (4/16)

MLB fans and bettors are treated to one final matchup between the Los Angeles Angeles and New York Yankees to add to their MLB home run props, as Mike Trout and Aaron Judge have put on a show with seven combined home runs in three games. The series was always destined to be a fun watch, as it featured the top four active leaders in career home runs (Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge).

Since Los Angeles was undecided about its starting pitching plans, I ignored the Angels-Yankees series finale and instead rounded out my three-pack of home run plays with other sluggers among Thursday’s 10-game slate. I look to build off the momentum of yesterday’s +1.9-unit day of profit after Shea Langeliers homered (+390).

      Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

      NBA Premium Discount

      Thursday’s Best Home Run Props

      (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

      Boost your MLB betting strategy with our MLB Prop Bet Analyzer and get the top-rated and trending MLB player props today.

      Gary Sanchez (+427)

        Gary Sanchez will be counted on to hold down the fort from a power perspective for a Brewers lineup that is without Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn (both are nearing returns) as well as Christian Yelich (out for the next month).

        Two of Sanchez’s four hits in 11 career at-bats against Blue Jays lefty Patrick Corbin have gone for extra bases, with one leaving the yard. That resulted in a 1.091 OPS in those head-to-head matchups, and I’m happy to oppose the southpaw who allowed the most earned runs in the league in three seasons of a four-year span from 2021-24.

        Find +EV Bets for MLB


        Sal Stewart (+351)

          Reds catcher Sal Stewart was already making waves prior to his three home runs in two games against the Giants. 

          Entering the week, Stewart was one of just three players among Statcast qualifiers to rank in the 85th percentile or higher in barrel, strikeout, and walk rate (Yordan Alvarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the others). And since the start of September 2025 (min. 100 plate appearances), Stewart ranks fifth in xSLG, seventh in xwOBA, and 10th in barrel rate.

          While Giants righty Landen Roupp hasn't allowed a home run yet this season, the wind blowing out with gusts up to 26 mph at the Great American Ball Park make this a great weather-supported value play.


          Mickey Moniak (+409)

          Prior to Tuesday’s season-opening win against the Rockies, the Astros were tied for the worst record in the majors despite leading the league in runs scored. That gives you a sense of how bad Houston’s pitching has been, which entered the series ranked last in the American League in starter ERA, reliever ERA, opponents’ batting average, and home runs allowed.

          I wouldn’t put anyone off adding more Rockies hitters to their home run portfolios today as a result, but I settled on Mickey Moniak, despite him being 0-for-3 in his career against Lance McCullers Jr.

          Moniak’s ceiling for home runs will always be high away from Coors Field while he maintains a barrel rate and xSLG in the 83rd and 91st percentile, respectively.  


          BettingPros App 3.0

          Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.