Afternoon baseball is the theme of the day on Thursday with seven games being played in the afternoon window. I’m identified two of my MLB home run props from those afternoon games, with the last one coming from the series finale between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers in one of baseball’s most intense rivalries.
I’ve scoured the data to identify my three best MLB home run bets for Thursday’s 11-game slate.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Fernando Tatis Jr. (+564)
Fernando Tatis Jr., a three-time All-Star who even led the league once with 42 home runs in 2021, has to end his home run drought at some point, right?
Tatis entered the week with the second-most plate appearances of any batter without a home run. Of the top five sluggers on that list, three rank in the first percentile in barrel percentage, while two rank in the first percentile in bat speed and hard-hit rate. But there's optimism for Tatis based on his 98th percentile hard-hit rate, 77th percentile barrel rate, and 84th percentile bat speed.
Tatis' 79 wRC+ is down from 111, 135, and 131 over the last three seasons. He still has a 58.3% hard-hit rate, and six other players with a higher rate have hit at least five home runs. Four of those sluggers have double-digit home runs (Munetaka Murakami, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Ben Rice).
What better pitcher to end his home run drought against than Brewers southpaw Kyle Harrison, against whom Tatis is 4-for-9 with a home run.
Julio Rodriguez (+456)
Julio Rodriguez hit a 414-foot bomb in Monday's series opener against Houston, bringing his hitting streak against the AL West rivals to 10 games. In his previous 15 games total against the Astros, he batted .323 with four doubles, three home runs, nine RBI, and 15 runs.
Though Rodriguez was one of two Mariners without a hit in Tuesday's 10-2 romp, he was still amid a career-best 42-game start in terms of OPS. Rodriguez now faces Astros righty Mike Burrows, who has allowed a .822 opponents' OPS and multiple home runs in two of four home starts this season.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Rodriguez’s teammate, Josh Naylor (+431) to homer, as he is 3-for-5 with two home runs in a small sample size against Burrows. Either way, I’d suggest adding a Mariners slugger to today’s home run prop portfolio and attacking Houston’s AL-worst pitching staff in terms of HR/9 rate and 30th-ranked staff in ERA.
Rafael De,vers (+406)
In 31 games between March and April, Rafael Devers slashed .207/.248/.289 with six extra-base hits and a 50 wRC+. Yet, through the first 10 games of May, Devers was slashing .364/.436/.758 with seven extra-base hits and an eye-popping 222 wRC+.
Devers has increased his OPS from .530 over the first 30 games to .691 currently, and he has more home runs in the last seven games (three) than he did over the first 36 (two).
Devers now faces Emmet Sheehan, who ranks in the bottom fourth of all qualified pitchers in barrel rate, and who has allowed a .921 OPS (and all six of his home runs) to left-handed hitters.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.