Less than half of MLB’s 30 teams are in action today on a small seven-game Thursday getaway slate. That means my MLB home run props are only focused on my top two players from divisional rivalries, one of which takes place at one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors (Chase Field).
I nailed a +385 pick when Jake Burger went deep to turn a profit in yesterday’s home run column, and am back to continue that momentum today.
I’ve scoured the data to identify my two best MLB home run bets for Thursday’s 7-game slate.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boost your MLB betting strategy with our MLB Prop Bet Analyzer and get the top-rated and trending MLB player props today.
Oneil Cruz (+518)
Pittsburgh's offense is vastly improved after finishing dead-last in home runs and runs per game a season ago. Cruz is one of four starters with an OPS at least 83 points higher than last season (Nick Gonzalez, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O’Hearn are the others). And he in particular does not show signs of slowing down from a home run perspective, especially since he ranks fourth among all players in fastest bat speed (min. 150 swings).
Cruz is 1-for-3 with a home run off of Dustin May. The righty should show signs of regression, as his HR/9 rate was 1.4 in each of the two previous seasons where he made 10-plus starts. In addition, his 52.3% hard-hit rate allowed is on pace to obliterate his previous career high of 44.6%.
Even if Cruz doesn’t homer off of May, he has a great chance to go yard against a Cardinals bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA and 23rd in FIP.
Corbin Carroll (+445)
Among the 70 pitchers who threw a minimum of 150 innings last year, Tomoyuki Sugano’s 1.89 HR/9 rate was the second-worst. The righty allowed 33 home runs overall and a .799 opponents' OPS as a member of the Orioles last season.
Corbin Carroll is in the better hitting split as a left-handed batter when facing Sugano, who has allowed a .282/.351/.588 slash line to lefties and a .228/.267/.391 slash line to right-handed batters. Six of the nine home runs Sugano has allowed this season have come to lefties (in seven fewer at-bats).
Carroll turned in his ninth career two-home run game (and first since June 2025) the last time he faced Rockies pitching. It also matched his home run total from his previous 23 games while snapping an overall eight-game drought without a dinger.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.