That is now three out of the last four Tuesdays that I have hit two of three home run bets. It feels good, but we still have a few weeks left, so let’s keep our feet on the gas and get right to this week's picks. Here are my three favorite MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday, September 8.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(All bets one unit, unless otherwise specified.)
Riley Greene (+550 at BetRivers/Bally's)
My first home run pick for Tuesday night is on Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers. Greene is absolutely on fire and has an elite matchup against Dean Kremer and the Minnesota Twins. Detroit’s left fielder has nine hits across his last three games. Six of those have gone for extra bases, including three home runs. I look for him to add to those totals against Kremer and company.
230 Major League pitchers have thrown at least 60 innings this season. Kremer is one of six who have allowed more than two home runs per nine innings. To his credit, Kremer did keep Greene and the Tigers in the ballpark in his start against them last week. However, he still gave up four earned runs in four innings. Kremer has a 7.23 ERA over his last four outings and allowed a home run in each of his other three starts in that stretch.
Comerica Park is a tough park to homer in, especially for left-handed hitters. I believe that is why Greene's odds are as long as they are. But I am willing to take a shot, given the form both players are in.
If you do not have access to BetRivers and Bally's, most other sportsbooks currently have this bet priced somewhere between +420 and +475. I think anything over +400 is well worth the investment, all things considered.
Is it wise to bet on a player to hit a home run when that player hasn't played since May? Perhaps not. However, not every player is Aaron Judge.
Judge has been out since the end of May with a fractured rib. Some reports have suggested that Judge fractured the rib as early as April. It was clear that the injury hampered Judge prior to the Yankees placing him on the Injured List. Judge homered just one time in his final 18 games. Before that, he had been his usual longball-launching self.
Judge hit 16 home runs across his first 41 games this year. That pace was slightly higher than the historic four-year pace the Yankee slugger posted from 2022-2025. I am going to trust that New York would not be putting Judge out there if he wasn't ready to go.
Colorado is going with rookie right-hander Gabriel Hughes to start this game. Hughes has allowed a home run in five of his last six starts, including three straight games on the road. He has allowed 18 earned runs in 14 innings across those three outings.
Hughes throws a four-seam fastball over 50 percent of the time when facing right-handed hitters. Judge has a slugging percentage of .792 or higher in each season since 2022, excluding this year against four-seam fastballs.
This is not a matchup to fear, and this price is about as good as we are going to get when it comes to Aaron Judge hitting a home run…wheels up.
My final home run bet is a bit of a long shot considering this player has just six homers. However, I am betting on Tommy Edman of the Dodgers to hit a home run on Tuesday night.
Edman's power splits versus left-handed pitchers compared to right are like night and day. He has 41 career home runs in nearly 2,300 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Yet, versus lefties, he has 37 homers in less than 900 plate appearances. That is a solid 25-30 home run pace over a full season's worth of trips to the plate. Now let's factor in the matchup with Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds.
I should copy and paste what I wrote last week when I identified Lodolo as a pitcher to target. I picked Fernando Tatis to go deep last Tuesday, and he homered twice, including one against Lodolo. The left-hander has now allowed 14 home runs to right-handed hitters in just 17 starts this year. He has also served up six home runs in his last three road games.
Edman is 3-for-7 lifetime with a home run against Lodolo. Believe it or not, the home run that Edman hit had the lowest exit velocity of any batted ball he has hit against Lodolo in their head-to-head encounters.
I understand if you want to pick a different Los Angeles Dodgers hitter, given the power bats on their roster. However, I prefer Edman at much more favorable odds than most of the Dodgers regulars. Thus, I am taking Tommy Edman to tuck us in and cap off another successful Dinger Tuesday.
