Today’s MLB home run props are banking on a slugfest in a National League showdown, as I’m backing a hitter from both the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates, who have each homered in their careers off of today’s opposing pitcher. And I’m also wagering on one of the league’s top home run hitters, despite him having minimal success against the other team’s starter.
Here are my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Aaron Judge (+233)
The Yankees have had great success against the Orioles over the years, but few sluggers have the statistics that Aaron Judge has in this American League East rivalry.
Entering Monday’s series opener, Judge was batting .395 with a .522 on-base percentage (OBP), 13 home runs and 25 RBI in his last 25 road games in Baltimore. He has since added another extra-base on Monday and reached base four times yesterday. I’m not the least bit concerned about Judge’s 1-for-11 career split against Orioles righty Kyle Bradish.
Bradish has allowed five home runs in 41 innings, two of which came against Cody Bellinger in a 9-4 road loss at Yankee Stadium earlier this month. The Yankees showed an innate ability to elevate Bradish’s pitches, as his nine fly-ball outs compared to four groundball outs marked just the second time in his last seven starts that he recorded fewer groundball outs than fly-ball outs.
Judge has also been pretty consistent from a home run standpoint, not going longer than three games in a row without a homer since April 26th.
Mickey Moniak (+347)
From the beginning of June last year to the start of this week (114 games), Moniak has batted .300 with 23 doubles, 30 home runs, 74 RBIs and a .608 slugging rate. That slugging rate trails only Aaron Judge and Shea Langeliers during that span (minimum 400 plate appearances). His .655 slugging rate this season ranks first among National League qualifiers.
Moniak has slashed .400/.400/.800 with a home run and half of his four hits in 10 at-bats going for extra bases against Mitch Keller.
Keller has allowed two home runs after beginning the season without giving up a home run through his first 18 innings (spanning three starts). As long as Moniak continues his excellent hard-hit and barrel rates, his home run total should continue to rise, as he is on pace for a career-high fly-ball rate (38.8%).
It’s true that nine of Moniak’s 11 home runs have come at Coors Field, but he has also hit nine homers against right-handed pitchers, so I’m banking on his 1.093 OPS against righties to help his power numbers at any park.
Marcell Ozuna (+529)
Through 40 games last season, the Pirates were 13-27, scored 123 runs and hit 28 home runs. This year, Pittsburgh’s 22 wins through 40 games were its most in that span since 2018. While great pitching has had a lot to do with the resurgence, so too has an improved offense that has scored 200 runs while belting 42 home runs.
Marcell Ozuna is a big reason for that improved offense, as he has provided power despite a subpar batting average. Ozuna also has a 1.055 OPS in 29 career at-bats against Rockies southpaw Jose Quintana, with one home run.
Ozuna entered the week with a slugging rate more than 200 points better against left-handed pitching, and Colorado’s poor pitching staff was a big reason the team was mired in a 2-8 stretch, with five of those eight losses coming by five or more runs.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.