A lot has happened from an MLB home runs perspective since Sunday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. snapped a 23-game home run drought (and a 16-game extra-base hit drought), and Salvador Perez belted his 310th career home run. That leaves him seven shy of tying George Brett for the most in Royals franchise history. One thing you can bank on for today’s top MLB home run props is that I will not be betting a Blue Jays player to go deep off of Yankees ace Cam Schlittler. The righty has the third-lowest HR/9 rate (0.30) of any qualified pitcher. Here are my top MLB home run picks for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boost your MLB betting strategy with our MLB Prop Bet Analyzer and get the top-rated and trending MLB player props today.
Yordan Alvarez (+392)
No player from today’s MLB slate has had more success against their opposing starting pitcher in as big a sample size as Yordan Alvarez. He has three home runs in 14 at-bats against Twins righty Joe Ryan, while slugging .929 and totaling a 1.304 OPS in that split.
Alvarez needs to do the heavy lifting at the top of the Astros lineup, which is without the injured Jose Altuve. There is concern that the Twins will pitch around the slugger all series, as they did when they walked him twice in Monday’s series opener.
But Alvarez has also been consistent, homering in each of the last three series. He was slugging .667 with three extra-base hits (including two home runs) in the last seven days before yesterday’s game.
Jake Burger (+385)
Jake Burger entered the week batting .500 with two home runs, 10 RBI and a 1.516 OPS in his last five games. Though he has never homered in his six career at-bats against Kyle Freeland, he does have two base hits, and Freeland has been hammered for six home runs over his last four starts.
The southpaw has allowed nearly half of his home runs (three out of seven) at Coors Field in five fewer home innings than road innings. Freeland has been burned more by lefty-lefty matchups this season, with worse slash line numbers across the board against left-handed batters than righties.
Still, I am focused on Burger as a great value play, as his slugging rate is 230 points higher on the road than it is at home at the cavernous Globe Life Field. I expect positive regression back to his xSLG numbers from the last three seasons (.517, .483, .478) as he ranks in the 76th percentile or better in bat speed and hard-hit rate, even though his .399 xSLG is on pace to be a career low.
Bryce Harper (+352)
Thus far, it looks like a managerial change from Rob Thomson to Don Mattingly was exactly what the Phillies needed to spark the team.
Under Thomson, the Phillies were 9-19 and averaging 3.6 runs per game while batting .218 with runners in scoring position. Entering this series opener, the team was 15-4 under Don Mattingly, while scoring 5.1 runs per game and batting .289 with runners in scoring position.
Bryce Harper is one example of a Phillies slugger reinvigorated under Mattingly, as his OPS rose to 1.075 entering this week after he posted just a .795 OPS with Thomson at the helm.
Harper’s 129 OPS+ last season was the fifth-lowest of his career. This year, his 155 OPS+ was his best since a 179 OPS+ in 2021. In addition, his slugging rate is on pace to be his best since his MVP season of 2021.
Harper began the week on pace for 41 home runs, which would be the second-most of his career (he hit 42 in 2015). He is slashing .286/.384/.619 with six home runs and 11 RBI in May, plus he is striking out at the lowest rate of his career.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.