Our MLB home run props from last Wednesday turned a profit when we cashed in on Texas Rangers slugger Jake Burger’s hot streak and his +385 odds to go yard.
Today, I’m targeting Cubs righty Jameson Taillon amid his struggles of keeping the ball in the yard, and I add another play on a slugger in a divisional rivalry who has had success against the starting pitcher he is facing.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 15-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Ernie Clement (+1040)
Ernie Clement entered this series amid a seven-game hitting streak, during which he hit .391 (9-for-23) with five extra-base hits and six RBI. He has since extended that hitting streak to nine games with home runs on Monday and Tuesday for his fourth and fifth dingers of the season.
Clement gets a tasty matchup against Marlins righty Eury Perez, who has allowed at least one home run in four consecutive starts, and seven homers in his last six starts overall. Perez has an awful 7.03 ERA with more than half of his home runs allowed coming on the road, despite pitching 10 fewer innings on the road than at home.
Clement ranks in the 94th percentile in squared-up rate and is slugging .583 against fastballs, which helps against the hard-throwing Perez.
Julio Rodriguez (+328)
On the surface, one would conclude that Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs has had great success against the Mariners, holding their current hitters to a .197/.250/.424 slash line in 71 combined at-bats.
But even though Seattle’s hitters have combined for just five extra-base hits off of the lefty in those matchups, all five have been home runs, with Julio Rodriguez doing much of the damage.
Rodriguez has slashed .286/.286/.714 in his career against Springs, with two of his four hits leaving the yard. Rodriguez was not one of the four Mariners who homered in Monday’s series opener, but he is swinging harder over the last week with the second-highest average bat speed (77.3 miles per hour) in the league.
Rodriguez entered this week with a 121 OPS+ and is just a small hot streak away from being taken much more seriously in the American League MVP conversation.
Brandon Lowe (+355)
Entering his last start, which was a 4-2 loss to the Astros (with him allowing all four earned runs while recording just 14 outs), Jameson Taillon was the only qualified pitcher this season with a HR/9 rate greater than 2.0.
The difference between the righty's 2.84 HR/9 rate and the next-closest pitcher's 1.98 HR/9 rate entering that start was bigger than the gap between the second and 26th-worst pitchers.
Taillon allowed a career-high five home runs in his last road start against the White Sox, and 10 of his 17 home runs allowed have come on the road.
Left-handed batters are slugging 101 points better against Taillon, which has me looking Brandon Lowe’s way. Three of Lowe’s four career hits off Taillon have been extra-base hits, with two of those being home runs. That has led to Lowe’s 1.197 OPS in 14 career at-bats against Taillon, and makes this a great value home run prop play.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.