Last week’s six MLB home run props alone turned 5.79 units of profit as we cashed in on Junior Caminero (+226), Elly De La Cruz (+292) and Brandon Lowe (+361) to go yard.
Today’s three-pack of plays follows a similar formula, featuring a combination of players who have performed well against today’s starting pitcher or who have been among the hottest hitters at the plate lately.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Brandon Marsh (+930)
Kyle Leahy has been pummeled by left-handed batters this season. In that split, he has allowed a .320/.394/.482 slash line, and lefties have accounted for seven of his 12 home runs surrendered. With Bryce Harper dealing with soreness and Kyle Schwarber's odds being too short for a player who has homered in just two of his last 27 games, I'm looking to Marsh for better value.
Marsh needs one more home run to set a single-season high. If he hits one today, that would come in 18 fewer games than his other 16-home run season in 2024. Marsh’s power surge is a byproduct of his career-high 32.3% pull rate and a launch angle sweet spot rate that ranks in the 100th percentile.
Jackson Merrill (+530)
Jackson Merrill hit the go-ahead two-run home run on Monday in the team’s series-opening win over the Brewers, which is fitting for how hot he was at the plate coming into the series. Prior to that long ball, Merrill had eight home runs and 21 RBI since the All-Star break. Both of those were tied for third-most in the Majors over that span.
How far Merrill has come from a slow start to the season has been remarkable. Through the first 95 games, he slashed .214/.271/.341 with 10 home runs, a 71 wRC+, a 24.9% strikeout rate and 0.9 fWAR. But over the next 21 games, he slashed .378/.395/.732 with eight home runs, a 207 wRC+, a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 1.6 fWAR. In that 21-game stretch, he was tied for first in homers, first in slugging rate, first in wRC+ and second in position player fWAR.
Despite a slow start to the season, Merrill’s statistics have held up well among all center fielders since the start of 2024. Here is where he ranks versus the rest of his position (minimum 750 plate appearances and 40% of games played in center field):
| Total | Rank | |
| Home Runs | 58 | T-5th |
| RBI | 216 | 1st |
| Slugging Rate | .460 | 4th |
| wRC+ | 115 | 5th |
| xwOBA | .352 | 2nd |
| fWAR | 10.9 | 4th |
| BsR | 11.5 | 4th |
Merrill’s ascent is also due to a huge improvement in how he has handled fastballs and non-fastballs of late.
From 2024-25, he batted .294 and slugged .519 against fastballs. Since July 19th, entering the week in that split, he ranks seventh in batting average (.417) and fourth in slugging rate (.792). Meanwhile, he batted .262 and slugged .437 against non-fastballs over the last two seasons. But since July 19th, those numbers have improved to .303 and .545, respectively.
Munetaka Murakami (+258)
Munetaka Murakami entered the week amid a 25-game on-base streak, which was tied with Cleveland’s Steven Kwan for the longest active streak in the Majors. But unlike Kwan, Murakami hit for much more power over that stretch.
Murakami buoyed his on-base streak with six home runs, 13 total extra-base hits, 13 RBI and 18 runs scored. He currently has a two-home-run lead over Kazuma Okamoto for the most home runs ever hit by a Japanese-born rookie. He faces Reds righty Rhett Lowder, who has been torched for a 7.71 ERA and .299 opponents’ batting average in 10 road starts.
Lowder has allowed a home run in back-to-back starts. He has also allowed a .838 OPS against left-handed batters and 10 out of 11 home runs in that split, which makes Murakami’s home run odds an attractive wager at this price.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.