With several teams already out of playoff contention with just five games remaining in the regular season, it has become more difficult to cash in on MLB home run props, as teams get a glimpse into the future and give youngsters more playing time down the stretch.
That is why today’s MLB home run picks take ballpark factors into serious consideration as I look for a boost any way I can. Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Nolan Arenado (+410)
Nolan Arenado entered this series coming off his third grand slam this season, tied for the most during a single season in franchise history (Paul Goldschmidt in 2012, Eugenio Suarez in 2025). Arenado now returns to Coors Field, where he led the league in home runs three times as a member of the Rockies (2015, 2016, 2018).
Arenado and the Diamondbacks face Mason Adams, who has already allowed four home runs in 14 innings this month. Adams has been torched by left-handed batters this season (1.022 OPS allowed), but righties have also tagged him for a .875 OPS. Despite the difference in OPS allowed, Adams has allowed the same number of home runs to lefties as righties with just one more at-bat in that split.
Arenado has turned back the clock with his most home runs since 2022, and this is great value for him to add another and inch closer to the 30-home run milestone.
Zach Neto (+306)
Zach Neto entered this series amid a 0-for-13 drought. But a change of scenery at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park should do him wonders.
Prior to Tuesday, three of Neto’s six hits against the Athletics this season have been home runs. And while he is 1-for-5 in his career against southpaw Jeffrey Springs, Neto has mashed left-handed pitching, posting a .512 slugging rate.
Springs is on pace for his second career season with an HR/9 rate of 2.1 or worse, and this season’s career-low 7.1 K/9 rate suggests he isn’t missing many bats. His combination of ninth percentile groundball rate and 22nd percentile barrel rate should again get him in trouble in the bandbox that is his home stadium.
Kyle Tucker (+575)
The Dodgers entered this series amid a four-game win streak, spurred by their offense. They averaged 7.3 runs per game while collectively batting .345 and logging a 1.036 OPS during that winning streak. And unlike other teams that have been eliminated, Los Angeles still has plenty to play for as it tries to track down Milwaukee for the best record in the league.
Robbie Ray has allowed 13 home runs and a .519 slugging rate in 184 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters. Kyle Tucker is responsible for two of those homers, and four of his six total hits against Ray have gone for extra bases.
Tucker’s 1.467 OPS against Ray is the highest among all current Dodgers with at least 10 at-bats against the southpaw. Ray has allowed at least one home run in seven of his eight starts since being traded to the Padres. Tucker has a great chance of going deep, as he has better slash line numbers across the board against left-handed pitchers.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.