MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (5/31)

Friday's full slate of MLB games provides a lot of options for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays tonight. I've selected three as opposed to my normal two plays. Each of these games takes place in a bottom-five ballpark in terms of offensive ballpark factors and nearly every pitcher does an exceptional job of either keeping the ball out of the air or limiting hard contact. Additionally, only one of the offenses I'm fading tonight poses a real threat. You can choose to leave that game off your card if you wish. The combination of splits advantages, reliable pitchers, underwhelming offenses and poor hitting environments is everything you can ask for in an NRFI play. I think we have a great chance to get all three of these to the window tonight.

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

2024 NRFI Record (19-14; +1.10 Units)

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Jordan Montgomery

Luis Severino has been very effective in his first season since moving across town from the Bronx and will get the start tonight for the Mets. Severino's expected numbers are really good, with an xERA of 3.42 and xBA of 0.223, both rank in the top third of all pitchers. Though his swing-and-miss stuff isn't quite as elite as it has been in years previous, he has done a great job of limiting hard contact; his average exit velocity and barrel% both rank above the 80th percentile, as does his extremely high ground ball rate of 52.1%. He'll be up against a Diamondbacks offense that has been pretty middling this season but largely starved for power, as the Diamondbacks rank in the bottom half of the bigs in both OPS and SLG, with the league's 24th-most homers. Corbin Carroll has also been struggling this season, which takes away a potential threat at the top of their order.

The big lefty Jordan Montgomery will start for Arizona tonight amid a perplexing year. Montgomery's 4.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP are not good and largely backed by his xERA and xBA, but most of his advanced metrics outperform what he has done in years prior. Much like Severino, Montgomery has done a nice job of avoiding hard contact, ranking in the top quartile of pitchers in barrel% and hard-hit% with an average exit velocity that ranks among the top third of pitchers. His walk rate of 7.1% and ground ball rate of 45.9% rank well above the league average, and his chase rate qualifies for the 65th percentile. I like Montgomery to have a strong outing tonight, as he draws a pretty hapless Mets offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. Both pitchers get the benefit of pitching at Citi Field tonight, which grades out second-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and bottom-10 in terms of home run environment since 2022.

Play: NRFI (-120 at BetMGM)

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Jose Soriano

Bryan Woo has emerged as another right-handed stud in the Mariners’ rotation, currently rocking a 1.66 ERA with an absurdly low WHIP of 0.60. His expected numbers are among the elite in baseball, with an xERA of 2.18 and xBA of 0.198 - both rank above the 90th percentile. His walk rate of 2.5% ranks in the 98th percentile and has a lot to do with that sparkling WHIP. His barrel% of 3.3% comes in at the 91st percentile. He doesn't generate a ton of strikeouts, but he has outstanding control of the strike zone and limits well-hit balls with a ground ball rate that sits right at the league average. While the Angels’ offensive numbers look decent on paper, they're boosted in large part by the MVP-caliber performance of Mike Trout in the early going. The Angels are also at a major splits disadvantage in this matchup, as they hit much worse against right-handed pitching.

The 25-year-old right-hander Jose Soriano gets the ball for the Angels tonight as one of the more exciting young pitchers in baseball, with an average fastball velocity of 98.3 miles per hour (MPH). His xERA of 3.57 sits in the 60th percentile, a shade lower than his actual ERA. His xBA of 0.220 qualifies for the top quartile of pitchers. He tends to give up hard contact, but that is somewhat nullified by his outstanding ground ball rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile at 62.4%. He'll face off against a Mariners lineup that continues to search for answers offensively, as they rank 25th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. Additionally, the only ballpark that grades out below the aforementioned Citi Field is T-Mobile Park, which ranks dead last in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2022.

Play: NRFI (-135 @ BetMGM, DraftKings)

San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Hicks vs. Marcus Stroman

I'm targeting two of the best ground ball pitchers in the MLB in tonight's nightcap, with Jordan Hicks facing off against Marcus Stroman. Hicks has been outstanding in his first season as a full-time starter, currently holding a 2.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with an xERA and xBA that both rank comfortably in the top half of baseball. His calling card has been his sinker, which induces ground balls at a 53% clip and falls just shy of the 90th percentile. Stroman's numbers are extremely comparable, holding a 2.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with a 52.3% ground ball rate that sits in the 86th percentile. Both pitchers will need to rely on their ability to keep the ball out of the air tonight as both offenses grade out in the top half of the league (especially the Yankees, who have arguably the best offense in baseball). They also both get the benefit of pitching at Oracle Park, which grades out fourth-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and dead last in terms of a home run-hitting environment since 2022.

Play: NRFI (-140 @ Bet365)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: