We have an extremely rare fifteen-game Monday slate but instead of all teams scheduled to play, we have the Phillies and Braves playing a doubleheader. Because of this, the first game of the day has a 1:05 first pitch. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, it is crunch time for teams as they make their final push towards the playoffs.
Monday's Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup: Clarke Schmidt vs. Kutter Crawford
Both teams are sending young righties to the mound and in both cases, the full-season numbers are a bit misleading. Kutter Crawford has had a nice season showcasing a skillset of just under a strikeout an inning as well as a low walk rate. He has been slightly hurt by the long ball and is still more a five-and-dive type of pitcher as opposed to a true starter but for these bets, we just need his first-inning skills. He has allowed a 0.270 wOBA the first time through the order and despite the Yankees’ offense being much better of late they are still not striking a ton of fear in opponents. Clarke Schmidt has shown an extremely similar skillset to Crawford on the surface but upon digging a little deeper, his main issue has been getting crushed by lefties. The Red Sox do have a few lefties at the top of the order so it’s a bit tougher but he has a solid 0.290 wOBA the first time through an order. Schmidt tends to get hit much harder as the game goes on so I expect him to come out of the gate hot in this one.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (-110)
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Pitching Matchup: Mason Miller vs. Framber Valdez
This usually is not the type of matchup I bet on but I love the pitchers here and the price is not crazy high. Framber Valdez is one of the league’s best lefties and the Oakland offense is nothing for us to fear. Valdez has a truly insane 0.232 wOBA allowed the first time through the order and should once again have no issue posting impressive numbers against this offense. The Astros’ offense is certainly one of the league’s best as well but Athletics’ starter Mason Miller has some of the best stuff in the league. In his first handful of career outings, he has been at his worst in the first inning however that has worked out to a 0.286 wOBA allowed. The stuff is insane and the control is shockingly solid making are a truly fascinating pairing. This is not an easy matchup for him but I think he is talented enough for it not to matter.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (-110)
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